近144年来秦岭太白山林线区3—6月平均气温的重建
发布时间：2019-01-02 13:22
【摘要】：秦岭太白山林线植被因海拔较高且受人为扰动较轻,对气候变化的响应尤为敏感,为获取过去气候变化信息提供了可靠代用资源。然而,结合树木年代学方法及Arcgis空间插值功能进行秦岭林线气候变化重建的工作至今仍处于空白。利用采自太白山林线地带太白红杉(Larix chinensis)所建立的树轮宽度资料,与提取自太白山保护区气温栅格数据中的采样点位置气象数据进行相关分析。结果表明,太白红杉与3—6月平均气温相关性最显著,采用线性回归建立了两者的拟合模型,剔除重建方程中的1997、1998年之后,方差解释量达57.2%(调整自由度后为55.5%);重建气温序列显示偏冷时段平均跨度(16年)较偏暖时段平均跨度(10.8年)长,偏冷时段有:1870—1881年、1903—1918年和1977—1996年;偏暖的时段有:1882—1892年、1919—1929年和1997—2013年;在1931—1978年这一时期,气温相对稳定,1988年之后升温强烈;周期分析显示近144年以来3—6月气温存在22—31 a,18—22 a以及10—13 a的3个振荡周期,可能与大尺度气候驱动及太阳活动存在联系。以上结果均得到历史记录以及周边重建结果的支持。
[Abstract]:The vegetation of Taibai Mountain forest line in Qinling Mountains is especially sensitive to the response to climate change because of its high altitude and light disturbance, which provides a reliable alternative resource for obtaining the information of climate change in the past. However, the reconstruction of climate change of Qinling forest line with tree chronology and Arcgis spatial interpolation is still blank. Based on the data of tree ring width established by (Larix chinensis) collected from Taibai Mountain Forest Belt, the correlation analysis was carried out between the data collected from the temperature grid data of Taibai Mountain Reserve and the meteorological data of sampling points. The results showed that the correlation between Sequoia chinensis and the average temperature in March and June was the most significant. The fitting model was established by linear regression, and the reconstructed equation was eliminated after 1997 and 1998. The variance explanation was 57.2% (55.5% after adjusting the degree of freedom). The mean span (16 years) of reconstructing temperature period is longer than that of warm period (10.8 years). The cold period is 1870-1881 years, 1903-1918 years and 1977-1996 years. The warm periods are 1882-1892, 1919-1929 and 1997-2013, the temperature was relatively stable in 1931-1978, and the temperature increased strongly after 1988. The periodic analysis shows that there are three oscillatory periods of 22-31 a ~ 18-22 a and 10 ~ (-13) a in the last 144 years, which may be related to the large-scale climate driving and solar activity. The above results are supported by historical records and peripheral reconstruction results.
【作者单位】： 西北大学城市与环境学院;
【基金】：林业公益性行业科研专项(201304309) 太白山林线树种年轮指数与气候变化响应的时空差异性研究(2014JQ5172)
【分类号】：S716.2
，
本文编号：2398545
[Abstract]:The vegetation of Taibai Mountain forest line in Qinling Mountains is especially sensitive to the response to climate change because of its high altitude and light disturbance, which provides a reliable alternative resource for obtaining the information of climate change in the past. However, the reconstruction of climate change of Qinling forest line with tree chronology and Arcgis spatial interpolation is still blank. Based on the data of tree ring width established by (Larix chinensis) collected from Taibai Mountain Forest Belt, the correlation analysis was carried out between the data collected from the temperature grid data of Taibai Mountain Reserve and the meteorological data of sampling points. The results showed that the correlation between Sequoia chinensis and the average temperature in March and June was the most significant. The fitting model was established by linear regression, and the reconstructed equation was eliminated after 1997 and 1998. The variance explanation was 57.2% (55.5% after adjusting the degree of freedom). The mean span (16 years) of reconstructing temperature period is longer than that of warm period (10.8 years). The cold period is 1870-1881 years, 1903-1918 years and 1977-1996 years. The warm periods are 1882-1892, 1919-1929 and 1997-2013, the temperature was relatively stable in 1931-1978, and the temperature increased strongly after 1988. The periodic analysis shows that there are three oscillatory periods of 22-31 a ~ 18-22 a and 10 ~ (-13) a in the last 144 years, which may be related to the large-scale climate driving and solar activity. The above results are supported by historical records and peripheral reconstruction results.
【作者单位】： 西北大学城市与环境学院;
【基金】：林业公益性行业科研专项(201304309) 太白山林线树种年轮指数与气候变化响应的时空差异性研究(2014JQ5172)
【分类号】：S716.2
，
本文编号：2398545
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