基于作物生长模型的玉米干旱损失评估

发布时间：2019-01-10 08:41

【摘要】：农业气象灾害对粮食产量影响较大,利用作物生长模拟模型对作物的生长发育进行模拟从而对其进行评估已经成为目前研究热点之一。本文利用历史资料及玉米分期播种试验和干旱胁迫控制试验数据资料,采用WOFOST模型对辽西地区的玉米干旱损失进行评估,并且对典型旱年所造成的影响进行了分析,主要结论有：(1)WOFOST模型的单点本地化和区域化研究首先利用锦州地区降水充足年份的玉米生长发育及干旱胁迫数据调整WOFOST模型参数,再利用辽西各地区的发育期和产量数据对WOFOST模型进行模拟检验,实现WOFOST玉米生长模型在辽西地区的区域化应用。(2)干旱对玉米生长发育和产量的影响2015年的夏旱对吐丝期的影响大于抽雄期,造成抽雄日期比正常年份推迟1。14d,吐丝日期推迟5-23d,抽雄、吐丝间隔日数增加为3-15d；造成24.03%的植株未抽雄、37.3%的植株抽雄后未吐丝、49.21%的植株未正常抽雄吐丝。干旱对玉米植株的光合性能起抑制作用,干旱抑制植株茎杆的生长,同时加速了叶片的枯萎,不仅阻碍茎杆营养物质的累积,还抑制了营养物质从茎杆向果实转移的生理过程,最终对干物质的分配上造成叶重和茎重比例增加,穗重比例减少。干旱对玉米生长影响是不利的,造成了大幅减产,不同播期影响不同,早播播期(影响抽雄-吐丝期)损失严重,晚播播期(影响拔节期)损失相对较小。补水的各播期玉米植株都能够正常的生长发育,发育期、植株性状和干物质分配等数据与正常年份接近。(3)基于WOFOST模型的辽西地区玉米干旱损失评估基于WOFOST模型分别模拟了2015年辽西地区玉米不同播期的生产潜力,平均生产潜力为11491 kg/ha,生产潜力由西北向东南递减,最大值为5月30日播期(生产潜力为12247kg/ha),晚播播期生产潜力比早播播期高；另外模拟了不同播期干旱影响的产量分布状况,平均产量为4128kg/ha,产量整体由西向东递减,产量最大值为5月20日播期(产量为4760kg/ha),受干旱影响,阜新和锦州地区产量较低,均低于3000 kg/ha,葫芦岛西部和朝阳西北部产量较高。通过对2015年辽西地区玉米潜在产量和干旱实际产量得到2015年辽西地区玉米的干旱损失,不同播期平均干旱产量损失为7363kg/ha,产量损失由西向东递增,干旱下产量损失最大值为5月30日播期(产量损失为8151kg/ha),阜新和锦州地区产量损失较大,均高于8000 kg/ha,葫芦岛西部和朝阳西南部产量损失较小；通过WOFOST模型模拟不同播期在干旱下的产量损失分布表明,辽西地区玉米适宜播种期为5月10日左右,此播期玉米干旱产量损失最小(产量损失为6894 kg/ha)。
[Abstract]:Agrometeorological disasters have a great impact on grain yield. Crop growth simulation model is used to simulate crop growth and development so as to evaluate crop growth and development which has become one of the research hotspots at present. In this paper, using the historical data and the experiment data of maize seeding by stages and drought stress control test, the drought loss of maize in western Liaoning was evaluated by using WOFOST model, and the effects of typical dry year were analyzed. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) the single point localization and regionalization of WOFOST model. Firstly, the parameters of WOFOST model were adjusted by using the data of maize growth and development and drought stress in sufficient rainfall years in Jinzhou area. Then the WOFOST model is simulated and tested by using the development period and yield data of western Liaoning. The effect of drought on maize growth and yield was greater than that on silking stage in 2015, resulting in 1.14 days later than that in normal year. The date of spinning was delayed by 5-23 days, and the number of days between spinning was increased to 3-15 days. The results showed that 24.03% of the plants were not sprouting, 37.3% of the plants were not silky, and 49.21% of the plants were not normal. Drought inhibited the growth of plant stem and accelerated the wilting of leaves, which not only hindered the accumulation of nutrients, but also inhibited the physiological process of nutrient transfer from stem to fruit. The distribution of dry matter resulted in the proportion of Ye Zhong and stem weight increased and the proportion of ear weight decreased. Drought had a negative effect on maize growth, resulting in a large reduction in yield. The effects of different sowing dates were different. The loss of early sowing date was serious, while that of late sowing stage was relatively small. At all sowing stages of water supplementation, maize plants can grow and develop normally. The data of plant traits and dry matter distribution were similar to those of normal years. (3) Maize drought loss assessment based on WOFOST model and WOFOST model were used to simulate the yield potential of different sowing dates of maize in western Liaoning province in 2015. The average production potential of 11491 kg/ha, decreased from northwest to southeast, the maximum value was May 30 sowing date (production potential was 12247kg/ha), and the production potential of late sowing date was higher than that of early sowing date. In addition, the distribution of yield affected by drought at different sowing dates was simulated. The average yield was 4128 kg / ha, the whole yield decreased from west to east, and the maximum yield was May 20 sowing date (yield 4760kg/ha), which was affected by drought. The yield of Fuxin and Jinzhou was lower than that of 3000 kg/ha, in the west of Huludao and the northwest of Chaoyang. According to the potential yield and actual dry yield of maize in western Liaoning province in 2015, the drought loss of maize in 2015 was obtained. The average drought yield loss in different sowing dates was 7363 kg / ha, and the yield loss increased from west to east. Under drought, the maximum yield loss was May 30 sowing date (yield loss was 8151kg/ha), and the yield loss in Fuxin and Jinzhou was larger than that in west Huludao and southwest Chaoyang of 8000 kg/ha,. The WOFOST model was used to simulate the yield loss distribution of different sowing dates under drought conditions. The results showed that the suitable sowing time for maize in western Liaoning was about May 10, and the drought yield loss was the least (yield loss was 6894 kg/ha) at this sowing date.
【学位授予单位】：沈阳农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：S513;S423

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