安徽省一季稻产量灾损风险评价

发布时间：2019-03-02 12:11

【摘要】：利用安徽省1981-2014年50个市(县)一季稻产量资料,采用直线滑动平均方法计算一季稻相对气象产量,通过正交经验分解(EOF)分析一季稻相对气象产量的时空变化特征,并从一季稻产量灾损角度出发,采用灾年平均减产率、产量变异系数、减产风险指数及区域农业水平指数作为产量灾损风险评估指标,对安徽一季稻产量灾损进行风险区划。结果表明:研究期内安徽省各市(县)一季稻产量变化趋势一致,北部增产或减产较南部明显,2005年之前安徽一季稻产量波动剧烈;不同产量灾损评估指标在空间上表现出一定的地域性和连续性,灾年平均减产率、产量变异系数和减产风险指数均表现为北部数值高于南部,区域农业水平指数呈现由东北向西南减小的趋势。根据产量灾损综合风险指数区划结果,研究区域内北部灾损风险高于南部,风险高值区和中值区主要分布在沿淮、江淮北部,风险低值区面积最广,主要位于皖南山区、沿江地区及江淮南部。
[Abstract]:Based on the data of single-cropping rice yield in 50 cities (counties) from 1981 to 2014 in Anhui Province, a linear moving average method was used to calculate the single-cropping rice relative meteorological yield, and the temporal-spatial variation characteristics of the single-cropping rice relative meteorological yield were analyzed by orthogonal empirical decomposition (EOF). From the point of one-season rice yield damage, the average annual yield reduction, yield variation coefficient, yield reduction risk index and regional agricultural level index were used as the risk assessment index of yield damage risk, and the risk regionalization of yield damage in Anhui Province was carried out. The results showed that the change trend of single-cropping rice yield in the cities (counties) of Anhui Province was the same during the study period. The yield of the first-crop rice in the northern part of Anhui Province was more obvious than that in the southern part of Anhui Province. The evaluation indexes of different yield damage showed certain regionality and continuity in space. The average annual yield reduction, the yield variation coefficient and the risk index of yield reduction were higher in the north than in the south. The regional agricultural level index showed a decreasing trend from northeast to southwest. According to the results of comprehensive risk index regionalization of yield damage, the risk of damage in the northern part of the study area is higher than that in the southern part of the study area, and the high-value and middle-value areas are mainly distributed along the Huaihe River, the northern part of the Yangtze-Huaihe River and the northern part of the Yangtze-Huaihe River. The area along the Yangtze River and the south of the Yangtze-Huaihe River.
【作者单位】：南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心;江苏省农业气象重点实验室;南京信息工程大学应用气象学院;
【基金】：中国气象局预报预测核心业务发展专项(CMAHX20160311) 江苏省重点研发计划(现代农业)项目(BE2015365) 科技部行业专项(GYHY201506018) 江苏省农业气象重点实验室基金(KYQ201304) 河南省农业气象保障与应用技术重点实验室基金课题(AMF201401)
【分类号】：S42;S511

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