1978-2008年中国十省主要农业气象灾害风险评估

发布时间：2019-03-28 09:40

【摘要】：以全球变暖为主要特征的气候变化威胁着生态环境各个领域,而农业是对气候变化最敏感和脆弱的领域之一,气候变化背景下农业气象灾害对农业生产的剧烈影响更不容忽视。因此,定量评价农业气象灾害的发生风险对于防灾减灾政策制定有着重要意义。本文基于信息扩散理论和多元回归技术等统计方法,建立了用于评价农业气象灾害风险的方法体系。从案例研究入手,将1978—2008年间的农业统计数据与风险评价体系相结合,研究并量化了中国10省农业气象灾害风险,分析了农业气象灾害风险的空间分布特征及其对粮食气象产量的影响。文章主要结论如下:(1)在四种主要农业气象灾害中,旱灾成灾面积比例最高,而霜冻灾成灾面积年际间波动最大,其变异系数高达159%。与1979—1988年相比,1989—2008年10个省份中有7个省份旱灾成灾面积比例有增加趋势,6个省份洪涝成灾面积比例有所增加,所有省份霜冻灾的成灾面积比例均有显著增加。与1989—1998年相比,1999一2008年7个省份旱灾成灾面积变异系数、4个省份洪涝成灾面积变异系数和6个省份霜冻灾成灾面积变异系数有显著增加。(2)各省主要农业气象灾害成灾面积风险差异较大,旱灾和洪涝成灾面积风险高于风雹灾和霜冻灾。在区域分布方面,旱灾受灾风险体现为东部省份高于西部省份,而北部省份高于南部省份;长江中下游地区和东北地区省份遭受洪涝灾害的风险较高,而西北地区省份的风险较低;青海省风雹灾成灾面积比例在P10%上的概率高达18.10%,为风雹灾重灾区。(3)气候变化对我国农作物气象产量的影响以减产的风险为主。内蒙古自治区和黑龙江省农作物产量波动性和减产率均相对高于其他省份,气象产量变异系数分别为36.77%、36.74%,年均减产率为2.71%和2.52%。云南省农作物气象减产幅度的变率为178.24%,远远高于其他省份,属于气候变化极敏感区域;青海省、安徽省以及福建省均为气候负面影响的敏感区域。(4)农业气象灾害成灾面积比例的年际间变化可以解释农作物气象产量的变化。旱灾是导致案例省份气象减产的主要因子之一,青海省和新疆维吾尔自治区导致气象减产的主要灾害分别为风雹灾和霜冻灾。
[Abstract]:Climate change, characterized by global warming, threatens every field of ecological environment, and agriculture is one of the most sensitive and fragile fields to climate change. The severe impact of agrometeorological disasters on agricultural production in the context of climate change cannot be ignored. Therefore, quantitative evaluation of the occurrence risk of agrometeorological disasters is of great significance for policy formulation of disaster prevention and mitigation. Based on the statistical methods such as information diffusion theory and multivariate regression technique, a method system for evaluating the risk of agrometeorological disasters is established in this paper. Starting with the case study, this paper studies and quantifies the agricultural meteorological disaster risk in 10 provinces of China by combining the agricultural statistical data from 1978 to 2008 with the risk assessment system. The spatial distribution characteristics of agrometeorological disaster risk and its influence on grain meteorological yield were analyzed. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) among the four main agrometeorological disasters, drought disaster area is the highest, while frost disaster area fluctuates most year to year, and its coefficient of variation is as high as 159%. Compared with 1979-1988, 7 out of 10 provinces in 1989-2008 had an increasing trend of drought disaster area, 6 provinces had an increase in flood disaster area proportion, and all provinces had a significant increase in frost disaster area proportion. Compared with 1989-1998, the coefficient of variation of drought-affected area in seven provinces from 1999 to 2008, The coefficient of variation of flood disaster area in 4 provinces and frost disaster area in 6 provinces were significantly increased. (2) the risk of major agrometeorological disasters in each province was significantly different. Drought and flood disaster area risk is higher than hail disaster and frost disaster. In terms of regional distribution, the risk of drought disaster is higher in the eastern provinces than in the western provinces and higher in the northern provinces than in the southern provinces; The risk of flood disaster is higher in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and in the northeast provinces, while the risk is lower in the northwest provinces. The probability of hailstorm disaster area in Qinghai Province is 18.10% on P10%, which is the severe disaster area of hail disaster. (3) the impact of climate change on crop meteorological yield in China is dominated by the risk of reducing crop yield. The fluctuation and reduction of crop yield in Inner Mongolia Autonomous region and Heilongjiang Province were relatively higher than those in other provinces. The variation coefficients of meteorological yield were 36.77% 36.74% and 2.71% and 2.52% respectively. The reduction rate of crop meteorological yield in Yunnan Province is 178.24%, which is much higher than that in other provinces, and belongs to the climate change sensitive region. Qinghai Province, Anhui Province and Fujian Province are sensitive areas for negative climate impact. (4) the interannual change of the area proportion of agricultural meteorological disasters can explain the change of crop meteorological yield. Drought is one of the main factors leading to meteorological production reduction in the case provinces. The main disasters of meteorological reduction in Qinghai Province and Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous region are hail disaster and frost disaster respectively.
【学位授予单位】：南京农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：S42

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