中国农业碳排放时空特征及空间效应研究

发布时间：2019-06-27 14:50

【摘要】：目前,温室气体所导致的气候变化是人类社会面临的最严峻的环境问题之一,碳排放是导致气候变暖的主要诱因,农业是重要的碳排放源,并且区域农业碳排放转移日益显著。本文基于环境经济学视角,系统梳理了国内外相关文献,并对文章农业碳排放所涉及的概念及理论进行阐述。在此基础上,合理构建农业碳排放测算体系,对中国农业碳排放时空演变特征进行分析,进一步采用LMDI(Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index,LMDI)模型对中国农业碳排放的影响因素进行分解,通过构建碳排放空间面板杜宾模型,对区域间农业碳排放的空间溢出效应进行研究,最后有针对性的提出中国农业碳减排的政策建议,以期对中国农业碳减排的政策制定提供参考。本文主要形成了以下研究结论:(1)中国农业碳排放总量在2000-2014年内经历了较大波动,主要表现为“缓慢上升-快速上升-下降-回升”四个特征,但总体上仍呈现上升趋势;而中国农业碳排放强度则表现为递减趋势,并呈现“V”形波动;农地利用、水稻、牲畜养殖所引发的碳排放量在过去的15年内均呈现上升的态势,农地利用碳排放所占比重呈现上升趋势,水稻及牲畜养殖所产生的碳排放占比总体上呈现下降趋势。31个省(直辖市、自治区)农业碳排放量呈现出“中心-外围”的分布模式,农业碳排放量较多的省份主要分布在中国四川盆地和东部平原等农业大省,中国“高投入”、“高排放”、“低效益”的传统农业生产活动模式仍然存在。(2)采用LMDI(Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index)模型对中国农业碳排放的影响因素进行分解,定量分析中国农业碳排放的驱动因素及增长机理。其中,农业经济增长及城镇化水平的提高促进了碳排放的增加,农业生产效率的提高、农业产业结构的优化及劳动力文化水平的提高抑制了碳排放的增加。(3)通过空间相关性检验可知,中国31个省(直辖市、自治区)农业碳排放在空间上表现出较强的正关联性和空间集聚特征。构建碳排放空间面板杜宾模型研究中国农业碳排放空间溢出效应,实证研究结果显示,本地区经济发展水平、农业经济发展水平、城镇化水平及农业生产受灾程度具有推动本地区碳排放量增加作用,而劳动力文化水平及农业生态治理程度具有碳减排效应;本地区经济发展水平、农业固定资产投资额度、城镇化水平、农业生产受灾及农业生态治理程度对邻域农业碳排放具有促进作用,农业经济发展水平能够促进邻近省份的农业碳减排。(4)基于研究结果,提出农业碳减排政策建议,以期为相关部门政策的制定提供理论依据。具体包括:协调经济增长与碳排放关系,转变农业生产方式;调整农业结构,优化农业产业布局;增加农业固定资产投资,提升技术水平,提高农业生产效率;提高农业从业人员素质,培养低碳农业意识;建立农业受灾预警机制,加强生态治理程度;提高农地资源生态保护程度,加强农地碳汇功能;加强财税支持力度,建立生态补偿制度;开征碳税,建立农业碳市场交易体制,推动各市场主体碳减排的能动性等措施。
[Abstract]:At present, climate change caused by greenhouse gases is one of the most severe environmental problems facing the human society. Carbon emission is the main cause of climate change, and agriculture is an important source of carbon emission, and the regional agricultural carbon emission is becoming more and more remarkable. This paper, based on the view of environmental economics, has combed the domestic and foreign literature, and expounds the concept and the theory involved in the carbon emission of the article. On the basis of this, the system of agricultural carbon emission measurement and calculation is constructed reasonably, and the spatial and temporal evolution of China's agricultural carbon emission is analyzed, and the influence factors of LMDI (LMDI) model on China's agricultural carbon emission are further analyzed, and the carbon emission space panel Debin model is constructed. The spatial spillover effect of agricultural carbon emission in China was studied, and the policy suggestions for China's agricultural carbon emission reduction were put forward, with a view to providing reference for the policy development of China's agricultural carbon emission reduction. The main results of this paper are as follows: (1) The total amount of China's agricultural carbon emission experienced major fluctuations in the period 2000-2014, mainly represented by the four characteristics of the "Slow rise-fast-rise-drop-pick up", but the overall upward trend is still present; and the intensity of China's agricultural carbon emission shows a decreasing trend. and the carbon emission of the agricultural land utilization, the rice and the livestock breeding has increased in the past 15 years, and the proportion of the agricultural land utilization of the carbon emission shows a rising trend, In 31 provinces (municipalities directly under the Central Government, autonomous regions), the agricultural carbon emission of the 31 provinces (directly under the Central Government and the autonomous region) shows the distribution pattern of the "Center-periphery", and the provinces in which the agricultural carbon emission amount is more is mainly distributed in the large agricultural provinces such as the Sichuan Basin and the Eastern Plain. The traditional agricultural production activity pattern of Chinese "high input", "high emission" and "low-benefit" still exists. (2) The influencing factors of China's agricultural carbon emission were analyzed by using the LMDI (Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index) model, and the driving factors and the growth mechanism of China's agricultural carbon emission were analyzed quantitatively. Among them, the increase of agricultural economic growth and the level of urbanization promoted the increase of carbon emission, the improvement of agricultural production efficiency, the optimization of agricultural industrial structure and the increase of the level of the labor culture, and the increase of carbon emission was restrained. (3) The spatial correlation test shows that the agricultural carbon emission in 31 provinces (directly under the Central Government and the autonomous region) of China shows strong positive correlation and spatial agglomeration characteristics in the space. The results of the empirical study show that the level of economic development, the level of agricultural economic development, the level of urbanization and the extent to which the agricultural production is affected have the effect of increasing the carbon emission in the region. and the level of the labor culture and the degree of agricultural ecological governance have the effect of carbon emission reduction; the economic development level of the region, the investment limit of the fixed assets of the agricultural fixed assets, the level of urbanization, the impact of the agricultural production and the degree of the ecological governance of the agriculture have a catalytic effect on the emission of the neighborhood agricultural carbon, The level of agricultural economic development can promote agricultural carbon emission reduction in the neighboring provinces. (4) Based on the results of the research, the policy of agricultural carbon emission reduction is put forward, with a view to providing a theoretical basis for the development of relevant sectoral policies. The method comprises the following steps of: coordinating the relationship between the economic growth and the carbon emission, changing the agricultural production mode, adjusting the agricultural structure, optimizing the agricultural industrial layout, increasing the investment of the agricultural fixed assets, improving the technical level, improving the agricultural production efficiency, improving the quality of the agricultural workers and cultivating the low-carbon agricultural consciousness; To set up an early warning mechanism of agriculture, to strengthen the degree of ecological governance, to improve the ecological protection of agricultural land resources, to strengthen the function of the carbon and foreign exchange of agricultural land, to strengthen the support of fiscal and taxation, to set up an ecological compensation system, to levy carbon tax and to establish a trading system of agricultural carbon market, And promote the initiative of carbon emission reduction of each market main body, and the like.
【学位授予单位】：云南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：X71;F323

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