坦桑尼亚姆比亚地区气候变化对水稻生产的影响
发布时间：2021-06-12 07:16
多年来,水稻一直为世界人口提供粮食,特别是在中国、印度和巴基斯坦等国主导的亚洲大陆。同样,世界上几乎90%的水稻都产自该地区;然而,如今包括非洲在内的世界不同地区,水稻的生产和消费广泛存在。在坦桑尼亚,稻米部门发挥着更大的作用,包括对国家经济发展的贡献和为农村和城市人口提供粮食保障。在谷类作物中,稻米在坦桑尼亚人的生产和消费方面仅次于玉米。生产主要由坦桑尼亚农村地区的小规模农民进行,那里大约90%的人依赖于旱稻生态系统。由于受雨养系统的支配,水稻容易受到频繁天气变化和冲击造成生产变化的影响。本研究旨在回答以下四个具体目标:（1）分析姆比亚地区家庭的社会经济特征和大气气象因素的变化对水稻生产的影响;（2）评估稻农对小尺度水稻气象因素变化的感知、指标和意识,采用Logistic回归模型对姆比亚地区农户进行分析;（3）应用Fisher回归方程和Chebyshev多项式函数建立了坦桑尼亚姆比亚地区水稻生育期气象因子与水稻产量的关系;（4）在气象因子变异的情况下,确定坦桑尼亚稻农采用灌溉技术的决策因子及其对水稻产量的贡献。为了回答上述四个研究的目标,使用了两种类型的数据。第一类是关于家庭社会经济...
【文章来源】：中国农业科学院北京市
【文章页数】：119 页
【学位级别】：博士
【文章目录】：
摘要
abstract
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS
CHAPTER1 INTRODUCTION
1.1 Research Background
1.2 Agricultural Production in Sub-Sahara Africa
1.3 Problem Statement
1.4 Significance of the Study
1.5 Objectives of the Study
1.5.1 Specific Objectives
1.6 Limitation of the Study
1.7 Research Contents and Outline
CHAPTER2 LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1 Influences of Famers’ Socio-economics Characteristics and Weather variability on rice production
2.2 Farmers’Perceptions and Indicators for Weather variability
2.3 Impact of Meteorological Factors on Crops Production
2.4 Farmers’ decisions for adopting Irrigation as an adaptive mechanism in the event of weather variability
CHAPTER3 AGRICULTURE CONTEXT IN TANZANIA
3.1 Agricultural Background
3.1.1 Rice Production and Rice Intensification in Tanzania
3.1.2 Climate
3.1.3 Tanzania Economic Development
3.2 Tanzania’s Agricultural Sector Development
3.2.1 Crops production in Tanzania
3.3 Impact of Weather Variability in the Tanzania Agricultural sector
CHAPTER4 THEORY AND METHODOLOGY
4.1 Research Site Selection
4.2 Sampling Technique
4.3 Data Collection Procedure
4.3.1 Secondary Data Collection
4.3.2 Primary Data Collection and Questionnaire Design
4.4 Conceptual framework for the Impact of weather,Socioeconomic Characteristics and Adaptation mechanism on Rice Production
4.5 Models Selection
4.5.1 Model for the Impact of Households’ Characteristics and Weather Variability on Rice Yield
4.5.2 Model for Rice Farmers’ Perceptions and Indicators for Weather Variability
4.5.3 Model for Weather Yield relationship with Rice Yield
4.5.4 Models for Decisions Factors for Adopting Irrigation and its Significant to Rice Yield in Tanzania
4.6 Data Analysis Procedures
CHAPTER5 DATA DESCRIPTION AND EMPIRICAL RESULTS
5.1 Statistical Descriptive Analysis
5.1.1 Household Information
5.1.2 Occupation of the household head
5.1.3 Land ownership and Crop farming by households head
5.1.4 Households’Rice Production Constraints
5.2 Influences of households’Socio-economic Characteristics and Weather on rice Production
5.2.1 Socio-economic Attribute of the households’head
5.2.2 Farmers’Perceptions of Weather factors with respect to rice yields
5.2.3 The empirical results of the influences of households’characteristics on rice yields
5.3 Farmers Perceptions,Indicators and adoption behaviour
5.3.1 Farmers’perceptions of weather variability
5.3.2 Indicators for Weather Variability
5.3.3 Responses to abnormal weather changes
5.3.4 Obstacles for immediate adaptations by farmers
5.3.5 The logistic regression analysis on farmers’awareness of weather variability.
5.4 Impacts of Weather on rice production
5.4.1 Descriptive statistics result for weather variables and rice yield trends(1981-2017)
5.4.2 Results for the trend yield
5.4.3 Results for Impacts of a meteorological factor on rice yield
5.5 Irrigation adoption and its Significant to rice yield
5.5.1 Characteristics of the Irrigation adopters and non-adopters
5.5.2 Influencing Factors for Farmers’decision to adopt irrigation technology
5.5.3 Modelling contribution of Irrigation technology to rice yield
CHAPTER6 FURTHER DISCUSSION
6.1 Influence of households’ socio-economic characteristics and Weather variations on rice production
6.2 Farmers’ perceptions,indicators,and awareness on Weather variability
6.3 Impact of meteorological factors on rice growth stages
6.4 Decision factors for adopting irrigation technology by rice farmers and the contribution of irrigation to rice yield
CHAPTER7 CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS
7.1 Conclusion
7.2 Recommendations
REFERENCES
APPENDIX
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
AUTHOR BIOGRAPHY
本文编号：3226183
【文章来源】：中国农业科学院北京市
【文章页数】：119 页
【学位级别】：博士
【文章目录】：
摘要
abstract
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS
CHAPTER1 INTRODUCTION
1.1 Research Background
1.2 Agricultural Production in Sub-Sahara Africa
1.3 Problem Statement
1.4 Significance of the Study
1.5 Objectives of the Study
1.5.1 Specific Objectives
1.6 Limitation of the Study
1.7 Research Contents and Outline
CHAPTER2 LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1 Influences of Famers’ Socio-economics Characteristics and Weather variability on rice production
2.2 Farmers’Perceptions and Indicators for Weather variability
2.3 Impact of Meteorological Factors on Crops Production
2.4 Farmers’ decisions for adopting Irrigation as an adaptive mechanism in the event of weather variability
CHAPTER3 AGRICULTURE CONTEXT IN TANZANIA
3.1 Agricultural Background
3.1.1 Rice Production and Rice Intensification in Tanzania
3.1.2 Climate
3.1.3 Tanzania Economic Development
3.2 Tanzania’s Agricultural Sector Development
3.2.1 Crops production in Tanzania
3.3 Impact of Weather Variability in the Tanzania Agricultural sector
CHAPTER4 THEORY AND METHODOLOGY
4.1 Research Site Selection
4.2 Sampling Technique
4.3 Data Collection Procedure
4.3.1 Secondary Data Collection
4.3.2 Primary Data Collection and Questionnaire Design
4.4 Conceptual framework for the Impact of weather,Socioeconomic Characteristics and Adaptation mechanism on Rice Production
4.5 Models Selection
4.5.1 Model for the Impact of Households’ Characteristics and Weather Variability on Rice Yield
4.5.2 Model for Rice Farmers’ Perceptions and Indicators for Weather Variability
4.5.3 Model for Weather Yield relationship with Rice Yield
4.5.4 Models for Decisions Factors for Adopting Irrigation and its Significant to Rice Yield in Tanzania
4.6 Data Analysis Procedures
CHAPTER5 DATA DESCRIPTION AND EMPIRICAL RESULTS
5.1 Statistical Descriptive Analysis
5.1.1 Household Information
5.1.2 Occupation of the household head
5.1.3 Land ownership and Crop farming by households head
5.1.4 Households’Rice Production Constraints
5.2 Influences of households’Socio-economic Characteristics and Weather on rice Production
5.2.1 Socio-economic Attribute of the households’head
5.2.2 Farmers’Perceptions of Weather factors with respect to rice yields
5.2.3 The empirical results of the influences of households’characteristics on rice yields
5.3 Farmers Perceptions,Indicators and adoption behaviour
5.3.1 Farmers’perceptions of weather variability
5.3.2 Indicators for Weather Variability
5.3.3 Responses to abnormal weather changes
5.3.4 Obstacles for immediate adaptations by farmers
5.3.5 The logistic regression analysis on farmers’awareness of weather variability.
5.4 Impacts of Weather on rice production
5.4.1 Descriptive statistics result for weather variables and rice yield trends(1981-2017)
5.4.2 Results for the trend yield
5.4.3 Results for Impacts of a meteorological factor on rice yield
5.5 Irrigation adoption and its Significant to rice yield
5.5.1 Characteristics of the Irrigation adopters and non-adopters
5.5.2 Influencing Factors for Farmers’decision to adopt irrigation technology
5.5.3 Modelling contribution of Irrigation technology to rice yield
CHAPTER6 FURTHER DISCUSSION
6.1 Influence of households’ socio-economic characteristics and Weather variations on rice production
6.2 Farmers’ perceptions,indicators,and awareness on Weather variability
6.3 Impact of meteorological factors on rice growth stages
6.4 Decision factors for adopting irrigation technology by rice farmers and the contribution of irrigation to rice yield
CHAPTER7 CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS
7.1 Conclusion
7.2 Recommendations
REFERENCES
APPENDIX
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
AUTHOR BIOGRAPHY
本文编号：3226183
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