上海市汽车燃油消耗因素的系统动力学研究

发布时间：2018-04-25 02:18

本文选题：系统动力学 + 仿真　；参考：《上海理工大学学报》2016年04期

【摘要】：汽车燃油产生的尾气是造成空气污染的重要因素,有效控制汽车燃油消耗,可以降低空气污染水平.采用系统动力学的方法和Vensim仿真软件,并基于2004—2014年上海市城市交通的相关数据,构建出上海市汽车燃油消耗的系统动力学模型,利用控制变量法对道路管理水平、汽车限购政策触发条件以及报废率分别进行模拟仿真.分析仿真的结果后发现道路的管理水平与汽车燃油消耗成反比,把汽车限购政策的触发条件设置在230~250万辆之间,汽车报废率维持在5.6%~5.8%,其产生的节能减排效果最为明显.最后基于现阶段上海市节能减排的要求,制定出上、中、下3套降低汽车燃油消耗的方案,为决策者的决策提供理论上的支持.
[Abstract]:The exhaust gas produced by automobile fuel is an important factor to cause air pollution. Controlling automobile fuel consumption effectively can reduce the level of air pollution. Using the method of system dynamics and Vensim simulation software, and based on the relevant data of urban traffic in Shanghai from 2004 to 2014, the system dynamics model of automobile fuel consumption in Shanghai is constructed, and the control variable method is used to control the level of road management. The trigger conditions and scrapping rate of the limited purchase policy are simulated separately. After analyzing the simulation results, it is found that the road management level is inversely proportional to the automobile fuel consumption. The trigger condition of the vehicle purchase restriction policy is set between 230 and 2.5 million vehicles, and the scrap rate of the vehicle is maintained at 5.6and 5.8.The effect of energy saving and emission reduction is the most obvious. Finally, based on the requirements of energy saving and emission reduction in Shanghai at the present stage, three sets of schemes to reduce fuel consumption are worked out to provide theoretical support for the decision making of decision makers.
【作者单位】：上海理工大学管理学院;
【基金】：上海市一流学科建设资助项目(S1201YLXK)
【分类号】：U471.23

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