基于元胞自动机的网红粉丝量创新扩散研究

发布时间：2018-06-08 12:37

本文选题：网红 + 粉丝　；参考：《广西师范大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着社会的发展,我国科技的不断提高,人们对“互联网+”越来越耳熟能详。现代的生活渐渐与网络融为一体,无论是科技创新,还是生活、工作,都在不知不觉中向“互联网+”靠拢,比如:互联网+教育、互联网+工业、互联网+农业等等。本文也可以说是互联网+扩散的一个产物。对于创新产品扩散的研究早在二十世纪六十年代以前就已经开始了,其中应用较为广泛的Bass模型贡献最大,而后出现的两层网络模型也给后来的学者们带来了很大的方便,论文便是利用两层网络模型对网红粉丝量的扩散进行分析、仿真与总结。由于网红、网红经济的出现,人人都想当网红,人人都想拥有大量的粉丝,投资者也想依靠网红来获取更大的利润。可是网红的粉丝量难以预测,有些网红自身也不清楚该如何获得更多的粉丝,所以本文对网红粉丝量进行了如下研究:(1)通过借鉴两层网络模型建立一个关于网红粉丝量扩散的元胞自动机模型,根据新浪微博数据以及一些调查,初步确定网红粉丝量扩散的几个主要的影响因素:①内部因素(推送内容)②观念领导者(具有权威性话语权的人)③粉丝潜在规模数。经过分析得出,内部因素(推送内容)越大,网红粉丝量扩散就越快;积极观念领导者越多,网红粉丝量扩散越快;消极观念领导者越多,网红粉丝量扩散越慢;粉丝潜在规模数越大,网红粉丝量扩散越快。(2)以Papi酱为例,对网红粉丝量扩散进行实证分析,并与真实数据做对比(此数据为本人生活中所记录绝对真实)。分析得出结论:元胞自动机仿真数据趋势与实际数据增长趋势相同。通过元胞自动机的模拟与仿真,可以从微观的角度了解每个网红粉丝扩散的具体过程以及对周围潜在粉丝的影响。(3)总结得出结论,如果网红想要增加粉丝量,他们可以考虑对内部因素(推送内容)、观念领导者数量进行适当的调整,也可以尝试在多个平台发布消息,如在新浪微博、映客、快手、酷狗等平台进行推广。
[Abstract]:With the development of society and the development of science and technology in our country, people are more and more familiar with the Internet. Modern life is gradually integrated with the Internet, whether it is scientific and technological innovation, or life, work, are unwittingly close to the "Internet", such as: Internet education, Internet industry, Internet agriculture, and so on. This article can also be said to be a product of the spread of the Internet. The research on the diffusion of innovative products began as early as the 1960s, in which the Bass model, which was widely used, contributed the most, and the later two-layer network model also brought great convenience to the later scholars. This paper uses two-layer network model to analyze, simulate and summarize the diffusion of Internet fans. With the emergence of the Internet Red economy, everyone wants to be a net star, everyone wants to have a large number of fans, and investors want to rely on it to make a bigger profit. But it's hard to predict the number of fans, and some of them don't know how to get more fans. So this paper has carried out the following research on the number of Internet fans: 1) by using the two-layer network model for reference, we have established a cellular automata model on the diffusion of the number of Internet celebrities. According to Sina Weibo data and some surveys, This paper preliminarily determines several main influencing factors of the proliferation of Internet fans: 1 internal factors (push content / 2 idea leaders (people with authoritative right of speech) / 3 potential size of fans. Through the analysis, the larger the internal factors (push content), the faster the number of Internet fans spread, the more the leaders of positive ideas, the faster the number of fans spread, the more leaders of negative ideas, the slower the number of fans spread. The larger the potential number of fans, the faster the number of Internet fans spread.) taking Papi Sauce as an example, this paper makes an empirical analysis on the diffusion of Internet fans and compares it with real data (this data is absolutely true as recorded in my life). It is concluded that the growth trend of cellular automata simulation data is the same as that of actual data. Through the simulation and simulation of cellular automata, we can understand the specific process of each fan diffusion and its influence on the potential fans from a micro perspective. We can conclude that if the Internet star wants to increase the number of fans, They can consider internal factors (push content, number of idea leaders), or they can try to publish messages on multiple platforms, such as Sina Weibo, Repeater, Fast hand, KuGou and so on.
【学位授予单位】：广西师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TP301.1;G206

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