航班协同保障关联规则发现与预警评价模型研究

发布时间：2018-06-20 08:39

  本文选题：航班准点率 + 关联规则　； 参考：《中国民航大学》2016年硕士论文

【摘要】：航班准点率直接体现着民航行业的服务质量,尤其对于大型繁忙枢纽机场,保障航班的准点率更是一项艰巨而繁重的任务。随着旅客吞吐量的日益增大,国内外大型枢纽机场都试图通过引入航班协同决策系统来提升航班的协同保障能力,它在一定程度上改善了航班保障流程、提升了旅客服务质量,但其缺乏对航班保障过程中关键环节的实时智能预警。针对这一问题,本文借助关联规则算法,挖掘和分析协同决策系统产生的海量航班保障数据,以发现航班保障过程中各关键保障环节与航班延误之间的关联关系,为新一代具有航班保障态势感知及延误预警功能的协同决策系统提供技术及理论支撑。为此,主要研究工作有:首先,开展了基于关联规则的航班协同保障数据知识发现的研究,提取协同决策系统在航班保障过程中生成的原始数据,并结合航班保障的业务流程来定义航班协同保障属性,提取航班协同保障过程中各个关键保障环节完成时间偏离值之间及其与航班放行状态之间的关联规则;其次,研究基于关联规则挖掘的航班保障态势感知及延误预警方法,采用Apriori算法对航班协同保障数据进行关联规则挖掘。根据所确定的各个关键保障环节实际完成和预计完成时间的偏离值与航班延误状态的对应阈值,提出一种基于航班保障各环节实际完成时间与预计完成时间偏离值分析的航班延误预警方法;再次,提出一种面向新一代智能协同决策系统的航班协同保障评价模型,模型包括以时间段内机场所有航班的进港时间平均偏离值、出港时间平均偏离值、保障完成时间平均偏离值、目标撤轮挡时间准确率和计算起飞时间准确率为核心的指标体系。通过采用关联规则挖掘确定各指标对航班协同保障及航班延误影响的阈值,结合模糊层次分析法和模糊综合评价法对机场、航空公司、空管等相关单位在航班保障过程中的协同状况做出评价,得到最终评价量级,评估航班保障各参与方的运行效率。最后,采用国内某枢纽机场航班运行数据进行仿真。结果表明,关联规则用于分析航班协同保障数据能够得到较为理想的结果,所建立的模型也具有良好的适用性。
[Abstract]:Flight punctuality directly reflects the service quality of civil aviation industry, especially for large busy hub airports, ensuring flight punctuality is an arduous and arduous task. With the increasing of passenger throughput, domestic and foreign large hub airports are trying to introduce flight coordination decision-making system to enhance the ability of flight coordination support, which to a certain extent improves the flight support process, and improves the quality of passenger service. But it lacks the real-time intelligent early warning of the key links in the flight guarantee process. Aiming at this problem, this paper uses association rules algorithm to mine and analyze the massive flight guarantee data generated by cooperative decision making system, in order to discover the relationship between the key guarantee links and flight delay in the flight guarantee process. It provides technical and theoretical support for a new generation of cooperative decision system with the functions of flight support situation awareness and delay warning. For this reason, the main research work is as follows: firstly, the research on knowledge discovery of flight coordination support data based on association rules is carried out, and the original data generated by cooperative decision system in the process of flight guarantee is extracted. And combined with the business process of flight support to define the attributes of flight coordination support, and extract the key guarantees in the process of flight guarantee between the completion time deviation and between the flight release status between the association rules; secondly, Based on association rule mining, this paper studies the situation awareness and delay warning method of flight support, and uses Apriori algorithm to mine the association rules of flight cooperative support data. According to the corresponding threshold between the actual completion and expected completion time deviation of each key safeguard link and the flight delay status, This paper proposes a flight delay early warning method based on the analysis of the deviation between the actual completion time and the expected completion time of each link of flight guarantee. Thirdly, a new generation of intelligent cooperative decision system is proposed to evaluate the flight coordination guarantee. The model includes an index system with the average departure time of all flights in the airport during the time period, the average departure value of the departure time, the average deviation value of the guaranteed completion time, the accuracy rate of the take-off time of the target and the accuracy rate of calculating the take-off time. By using association rules mining to determine the threshold value of the impact of each index on flight coordination guarantee and flight delay, combined with fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to the airport, airlines, Air traffic control and other related units in the process of flight security to make an evaluation of the coordination situation, get the final evaluation order of magnitude, to evaluate the efficiency of the flight security participants. Finally, the flight operation data of a domestic hub airport are simulated. The results show that the association rules can be used to analyze the flight coordination guarantee data and the proposed model has good applicability.
【学位授予单位】：中国民航大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：TP311.13
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本文编号：2043682