厦门港主航道VTS决策支持关键技术研究

发布时间：2018-06-25 11:28

本文选题：船舶交通管理系统决策支持 + 元胞自动机　；参考：《集美大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来,随着我国大力推进海洋经济发展,海上运输日益繁忙,港口水域船舶趋向大型化、高速化、密集化,这无疑给港口VTS监控中心带来巨大的压力。VTS系统能够监视船舶动态并能对船舶提供信息、建议或指令,它能有效的控制交通流,使船舶交通事故风险减至最小。但目前我国VTS提供的交管服务非常依赖人工经验、人工决策,随着港口交通局面日益复杂化与计算机技术的飞速发展,丰富VTS系统功能,为人工决策提供系统支持已成为必然趋势。元胞自动机技术是起源于计算机科学技术领域的新技术,元胞自动机结构简单,演化规则灵活,它可以通过大量简单的、离散的元件相互作用模拟出丰富而复杂的现象。基于元胞自动机思想的港口水域交通流模型还处于初级阶段。本文充分考虑定线制航道内船舶行为的分类,并结合船舶领域建立了基于元胞自动机思想的港口航道交通预测模型,并基于模型仿真预测结果,建立VTS决策支持模型,为VTS监管人员的决策做出支持。本文主要研究内容包括:1)分析船舶交通流的三要素;分析元胞自动机基本理论及道路交通流仿真中常用的四种元胞自动机交通流模型。为本文交通预测模型构建提供理论依据并理清思路。2)通过分析定线制航道内船舶交通行为,对元胞状态做出新的定义;建立元胞空间与航道实际地理位置、布局的映射,并将航道内实际船舶船位、交通行为作为模型初始交通流;结合船舶领域模型提出元胞邻居的定义,建立元胞邻域模型;对模型参数进行确定;最后制定考虑港口航道实际交通情形的更新规则进行仿真预测分析。3)基于预测模型的预测结果,制定VTS决策支持模型。通过设计VTS平台对目标船仿真的接口,可将目标船加入航道交通预测模型;然后确定危险度评价模型,对预测结果进行危险度评价,并以此对VTS监管人员决策做出支持。4)对厦门港主航道进行VTS决策支持实例应用,对模型进行仿真检验,结果证明该模型可以提供较合理的船舶交通预测数据,并可根据危险度评价,为VTS监管人员提供辅助决策信息。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the development of marine economy in China, the sea transportation is getting busier and busier, and the ships in the port waters tend to be large, high-speed and intensive. This undoubtedly brings great pressure to the port VTS monitoring center. The VTS system can monitor the ship dynamics and provide information, advice or instructions to the ship. It can effectively control the traffic flow and minimize the risk of the ship traffic accident. However, the traffic management services provided by VTS in our country depend very much on manual experience and manual decision-making. With the increasing complexity of port traffic situation and the rapid development of computer technology, VTS system functions are enriched. It has become an inevitable trend to provide system support for human decision making. Cellular automata (CA) is a new technology originating in the field of computer science and technology. Cellular automata has a simple structure and flexible evolution rules. It can simulate rich and complex phenomena through a large number of simple discrete element interactions. The traffic flow model of port waters based on cellular automata is still in its primary stage. In this paper, the classification of ship behavior in fixed waterway is fully considered, and the model of port waterway traffic forecasting based on cellular automata is established, and the VTS decision support model is established based on the simulation results of the model. Support VTS supervisor's decision making. The main contents of this paper include: 1) analyzing the three elements of ship traffic flow, analyzing the basic theory of cellular automata and four kinds of cellular automata traffic flow models commonly used in road traffic flow simulation. It provides the theoretical basis for the construction of the traffic forecast model in this paper and clarifies the train of thought .2) by analyzing the traffic behavior of ships in the waterway, we make a new definition of the cellular state, and establish the mapping of the actual geographical location and layout of the cellular space and the waterway. Taking the actual ship position and traffic behavior as the initial traffic flow in the waterway, combining the definition of the cellular neighbor with the ship domain model, the cellular neighborhood model is established, and the parameters of the model are determined. Finally, the updated rules considering the actual traffic situation of the port and waterway are formulated for simulation forecasting analysis. 3) based on the prediction results of the prediction model, the VTS decision support model is developed. By designing the interface of the VTS platform to the target ship simulation, the target ship can be added to the channel traffic forecasting model, and then the hazard evaluation model is determined, and the danger degree evaluation of the forecast result is carried out. Finally, the model is simulated and tested. The result shows that the model can provide more reasonable ship traffic forecast data, and the model can be used to support the VTS decision making of the VTS supervisor (4. 4) the model is applied to the main waterway of Xiamen Port, and the simulation results show that the model can provide more reasonable ship traffic forecast data. According to the risk evaluation, the VTS supervisor can provide auxiliary decision information.
【学位授予单位】：集美大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TP301.1;U697

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