BP神经网络在足球比赛胜负预测中的应用研究

发布时间：2019-04-27 22:30

【摘要】：足球运动是世界第一运动,全世界有10亿人关注着足球。随着球迷对各种足球比赛的关注度提高,对比赛结果胜负的预测分析方法也越来越多。在信息化大力发展的今天,传统的预测方法已经无法满足足球比赛胜负预测的需求,而以处理非线性问题能力强的BP神经网络为代表的新的预测方法更加受专家学者的青睐。本文以中超联赛比赛为研究对象,通过建立BP神经网络模型,使用历史数据对足球比赛胜负的预测,并完成了中超比赛胜负预测系统的原型的开发。具体研究内容包含以下几个方面:第一,对足球赛事预测的应用背景、BP神经网络算法研究与应用现状以及足球赛事预测相关研究做了描述;第二,分析了影响足球比赛胜负的因素,并总结了BP神经网络算法在足球赛事预测应用中的适用性;第三,详细设计了一个适合足球比赛胜负预测的三层结构BP神经网络模型,运用java网页抓取技术获取中超比赛历史数据进行了算法测试;第四,通过系统需求分析,完成了对系统总体的设计以及数据库的设计;最后,以java语言为基础语言,开发了中超比赛胜负预测系统的原型。相对于传统的预测方法,使用BP神经网络预测的精度有了很大提高,体现了BP神经网络在足球比赛胜负预测领域的实用性。通过使用现有的数据进行了测试,平均准确率达到了66.5%。
[Abstract]:Football is the first sport in the world, with 1 billion people watching it all over the world. With the increasing attention of fans to various football matches, there are more and more methods to predict the outcome of football matches. With the rapid development of information technology, the traditional forecasting method can not meet the demand of football match success and defeat prediction, and the new forecasting method represented by BP neural network, which has strong ability to deal with nonlinear problems, is more favored by experts and scholars. This paper takes the CSL match as the research object, establishes the BP neural network model, uses the historical data to predict the football match victories and defeats, and completes the development of the prototype of the Chinese Super League match victories and defeats prediction system. The specific research contents include the following aspects: firstly, the application background of football match prediction, the research and application status of BP neural network algorithm and the related research of football match prediction are described. Secondly, it analyzes the factors that affect the success and defeat of football match, and summarizes the applicability of BP neural network algorithm in the prediction of football match. Thirdly, a three-layer structure BP neural network model is designed in detail, which is suitable for the prediction of football match victories and defeats, and the algorithm test is carried out by using java page capture technology to obtain the history data of Chinese Super League match. Fourthly, through the analysis of system requirements, the overall design of the system and the design of the database are completed. Finally, the prototype of the prediction system for the victory and defeat of the Chinese Super League is developed based on the java language. Compared with the traditional prediction method, the prediction accuracy of BP neural network has been greatly improved, which shows the practicability of BP neural network in the prediction of football match victories and defeats. Using the available data, the average accuracy was 66.5%.
【学位授予单位】：重庆师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TP311.52;TP183

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