基于指数平滑法的建设项目成本预测研究

发布时间：2018-01-04 15:33

本文关键词：基于指数平滑法的建设项目成本预测研究　出处：《西华大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：2003年7月1日，《建设工程工程量清单计价规范》正式实施执行，标志着我国建设工程计价模式与国际接轨，特别是修订过的2008《建设工程工程量清单计价规范》（GB50500——2008）的实施，，一方面，使得我国工程量清单计价模式的招投标行为更加完善、合理；另一方面，这也对建筑企业提出了更高的要求。在当前信息化、规范化和透明化的市场背景下，建筑企业之间的竞争是实力的竞争，对于建筑企业要想在激烈的市场竞争中能更好的生存和发展，对建设项目进行科学的成本管理显得尤为重要，而成本预测是成本管理的核心和基础，也是加强成本控制的首要环节，而且在以工程量清单计价为基础的招投标模式下，建筑企业在投标报价前对建设项目的成本进行合理的预测成了一项非常重要的工作。因此，针对目前我国建设项目成本管理的现状，为了适应建筑市场新的发展的需要，本文开展了基于指数平滑法的建设项目成本预测研究工作。由于影响建设项目成本的因素有很多，使得建设项目成本预测本身存在着很多不确定性，这给建设项目成本预测的精确性带来了很大的困难。本文首先从国内外对建设项目成本预测的研究状况入手，分析了这些传统的成本预测方法的优缺点。文章在前人研究的基础上，避免传统预测方法的速度慢、精度低等缺点，以指数平滑法作为理论基础，将模糊数学中的贴近度归一化处理后作为平滑指数，合理的将模糊数学与指数平滑法相结合，并且同时考虑了建造时间因素对建设项目成本预测的影响，合理的将工程造价指数融入到其中对建设项目成本预测模型进行修正，提出了基于指数平滑法的建设项目成本预测模型。从而克服了以往传统建设项目成本预测方法的不足，在一定程度上大大提高了成本预测的速度与精度。最后通过具体的案例检测该建设项目成本预测模型，证明了该建设项目成本预测方法的研究与应用具有很重要的理论意义和实用价值。
[Abstract]:In July 1, 2003, "construction engineering quantity list valuation specification formal implementation, marking China's construction project valuation mode and the international community, especially the 2008< construction project quantity list valuation standard revised > (GB50500 - 2008) implementation, on the one hand, the bidding behavior of list of engineering quantity valuation model in China the more perfect and reasonable; on the other hand, this is also the construction enterprises put forward higher requirements. In the current informatization, standardization and transparency in the market background, the competition among enterprises is the competition for survival and development in the construction enterprises in order to better in the fierce competition in the market the construction project cost management, science is very important, but the cost prediction is the core and foundation of the cost management, but also strengthen the key link of cost control, but also in the bill of quantities as the base The bidding mode of the foundation, the construction enterprises in the bidding before the construction project cost reasonably forecast has become a very important job. Therefore, according to the current situation of China's construction project cost management, in order to meet the needs of the development of new construction market, this paper carried out the exponential smoothing method of construction project cost based on the research work of prediction.
Because the influence factors of the construction project cost a lot, so that the construction project cost prediction itself there are many uncertainties to the precision of the construction project cost prediction has brought great difficulties. Firstly, research status at home and abroad on the construction project cost prediction in hand, analyzes the advantages and disadvantages of the traditional method of cost prediction this article. On the basis of previous studies, to avoid the traditional prediction method of slow speed, low precision, the exponential smoothing method as the theoretical basis, the fuzzy normalized as the smoothing index, the reasonable combination of fuzzy mathematics and exponential smoothing method, and considering the factors of construction time prediction of the influence of construction project cost, reasonable construction cost index into the prediction model of construction project cost is revised, proposed based on exponential smoothing Forecasting model of construction project cost. In order to overcome the lack of prediction method of traditional construction project cost, to a certain extent, greatly improving the speed and accuracy of cost prediction. The prediction model of case detection in the construction project cost, proved that the construction project cost prediction has very important theoretical significance and practical the value of research and application.

【学位授予单位】：西华大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：TU723.3

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