变电站附属建筑施工风险评价与控制研究

发布时间：2018-01-24 21:53

本文关键词： 变电站附属建筑施工风险风险识别指标体系风险评价风险控制　出处：《福州大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近年来,电力行业已经成为我国国民经济的基础产业,而变电站作为电力系统中非常重要的一个环节,直接肩负着从输电网到各个负荷区的重要供电任务。“十二五”期间,我国将建设110千伏及以上智能变电站6100座来缓解我国目前紧张的电力供求关系。变电站施工项目是一种投资大、周期长、内容结构复杂、涉及因素众多的复杂系统。如此庞大的工程也伴随着巨大的安全风险,一旦发生安全事故,往往造成工程成本的增加和工期的拖延,甚至造成严重的人员伤亡和财产损失。本文以“输变电工程施工安全风险模型建立及应用”项目为依托,以变电站附属建筑部分为基础,运用风险分析和控制的理论方法,对变电站附属建筑工程的施工安全进行了系统的研究。首先,采用事故树分析法对变电站附属建筑施工过程中可能发生的事故进行分析,形成了风险辨识清单；紧接着,通过对危险因素的分析,从“人-机-环-管”四个方面建立了我国变电站附属建筑施工安全的综合评价指标体系,并确定了各个指标的评分方法。该指标体系分为两级,一共4个一级指标和17个二级指标；在此基础上,通过对20个原始样本的分析,建立了基于BP神经网络的变电站附属建筑综合评价模型,并在Matlab软件中实现,将其应用到某变电站的附属建筑施工评价的实践中,所得评价结果与实际吻合,证明了评价模型的实际有效性；最后,从降低风险等级的角度出发,建立了变电站附属建筑风险控制体系。本文利用系统工程的理论和方法,结合与变电站附属建筑施工相关的法规、标准和现场调查的结果,对变电站附属建筑施工中可能产生的事故进行了分析,辨识风险因素,形成风险辨识清单,并建立了基于BP神经网络的变电站附属建筑施工风险评价体系,这在变电站附属建筑施工风险评价方面是一种新的尝试,丰富了变电站附属建筑施工的风险评价理论。同时针对评价结果,提出了变电站附属建筑施工风险的控制手段,对我国变电站附属建筑施工的工程实践具有一定的指导意义。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the electric power industry has become the basic industry of our national economy, and the substation is a very important link in the power system. Directly shoulder the important power supply task from transmission network to each load area. The 12th Five-Year Plan period. 6100 intelligent substations with 110 kV or more will be built in China to alleviate the tight power supply and demand relationship at present. Substation construction project is a kind of large investment, long cycle, complex content structure. Such a huge project is accompanied by huge safety risks. Once a safety accident occurs, it often results in the increase of project cost and the delay of construction period. Even caused serious casualties and property losses. This paper based on the project "Construction Safety risk Model Establishment and Application of Transmission and Transformation Project", based on the substation subsidiary building part. By using the theory of risk analysis and control, the construction safety of substation construction is studied systematically. First of all. The accident tree analysis method is used to analyze the possible accidents in the construction process of the substation subsidiary building, and the risk identification list is formed. Then, through the analysis of the risk factors, the comprehensive evaluation index system of the construction safety of substations in China is established from the four aspects of "man-machine-environment-management". The index system is divided into two levels, including 4 first-grade indicators and 17 second-level indicators. On this basis, through the analysis of 20 original samples, the comprehensive evaluation model of substation subsidiary building based on BP neural network is established and implemented in Matlab software. It is applied to the construction evaluation of an auxiliary building in a substation, and the evaluation results are in agreement with the actual situation, which proves the practical validity of the evaluation model. Finally, from the point of view of reducing the risk level, the risk control system of subsidiary building of substation is established. This paper uses the theory and method of system engineering, and combines the regulations related to the construction of subsidiary building of substation. Based on the standard and the result of field investigation, the possible accidents in substation construction are analyzed, the risk factors are identified, and the risk identification list is formed. Based on BP neural network, the construction risk evaluation system of substation subsidiary building is established, which is a new attempt in the construction risk evaluation of substation subsidiary building. It enriches the risk assessment theory of substation construction, and puts forward the control method of the construction risk of substation subsidiary building according to the evaluation results. It has certain guiding significance to the engineering practice of the construction of the subsidiary buildings of substation in our country.
【学位授予单位】：福州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：TU745.7

【相似文献】