建筑施工企业技术创新风险预测研究

发布时间：2018-03-24 23:35

本文选题：建筑施工企业　切入点：技术创新风险　出处：《安徽工程大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：技术创新给各国经济社会发展带来了生机与活力,推动着人类社会的进步与繁荣。可以说,技术创新是人类社会财富之源,同时也是提高企业的市场竞争力、推进企业可持续发展的主要途径。正如此,我国政府近几年来一直强调要建设国家创新体系,把科技创新活动放在发展全局的核心位置,鼓励企业不断地开展技术创新活动。对于特定的建筑施工企业,近年来其所创造的价值占整个国民生产总值的比例越来越大,已成为国民经济中重要组成部分。因而,建筑施工企业有必要大力开展技术创新活动。但是,技术创新活动具有高风险性,特别对于建筑施工企业,面对着工地的复杂自然环境,存在着诸多不确定的因素,施工企业需要在地下和地上,有一定深度和高度的空间内施工活动,进行技术创新的风险性也就更高。由于建筑施工企业技术创新活动与一般企业技术创新活动在风险因素上有所区别,所以需要对建筑施工企业进行技术创新的风险进行研究,分析、预测建筑施工企业技术创新风险情况,以保证其技术创新活动能顺利地开展。本文首先从理论上分析影响建筑施工企业技术创新的风险因素,建立初步的技术创新风险测度指标体系,运用有效性、稳定性分析和基于粗糙集的属性重要度进行约简,对建筑施工企业技术创新风险评价指标体系进行优化,建立简捷、合理的建筑施工企业技术创新风险测度指标体系。将粗糙集方法确定的客观权重和专家方法确定的主观权重相结合,来分析技术创新风险各因素对综合风险的影响权重。在该权重和风险测度指标体系的基础上,构建可拓物元模型来预测技术创新的风险等级。并对建筑施工企业技术创新风险的预警预控活动进行了初步研究分析。为了使得本研究方法更加地明了和实用,把理论方法和实践应用相结合,在技术创新风险指标体系的建立及技术创新风险预测中进行了算例分析,以证明该方法的可行性和实用性。本文为建筑施工企业管理者进行风险预测提供了一种新思路,同时将多种方法结合起来综合分析技术创新风险也有一定的理论价值。
[Abstract]:Technological innovation has brought vitality and vitality to the economic and social development of various countries and promoted the progress and prosperity of human society. It can be said that technological innovation is the source of wealth of human society, and it is also to improve the market competitiveness of enterprises. This is the main way to promote the sustainable development of enterprises. In recent years, the Chinese government has always stressed the need to build a national innovation system and put scientific and technological innovation activities at the core of the overall development situation. Encouraging enterprises to continuously carry out technological innovation activities. For specific construction enterprises, the value they have created in recent years has become an important part of the national economy as a proportion of the gross national product. It is necessary for construction enterprises to vigorously carry out technological innovation activities. However, technological innovation activities have high risk, especially for construction enterprises, facing the complex natural environment of construction site, there are many uncertain factors. Construction enterprises need to have a certain depth and height of construction activities in the underground and on the ground, The risk of technological innovation is even higher. Because of the difference in risk factors between the technological innovation activities of construction enterprises and those of general enterprises, it is necessary to study the risk of technological innovation in construction enterprises. The risk of technological innovation in construction enterprises is analyzed and forecasted to ensure its technological innovation activities can be carried out smoothly. In this paper, the risk factors affecting the technological innovation of construction enterprises are analyzed theoretically, and a preliminary index system of measuring the risk of technological innovation is established, which is reduced by using validity, stability analysis and attribute importance degree based on rough set. The risk evaluation index system of technology innovation in construction enterprises is optimized, and a simple and convenient method is established. The objective weight determined by rough set method is combined with the subjective weight determined by expert method. To analyze the influence weight of each factor of technological innovation risk on the comprehensive risk, on the basis of this weight and the index system of risk measurement, The extension matter-element model is constructed to predict the risk level of technological innovation, and preliminary research and analysis are made on the early-warning and pre-control activities of technological innovation risk in construction enterprises. In order to make the research method more clear and practical, Combining the theory and practice, the paper analyzes the risk index system of technological innovation and the prediction of the risk of technological innovation. In order to prove the feasibility and practicability of this method, this paper provides a new way for managers of construction enterprises to predict risks, and it is also of certain theoretical value to combine various methods to analyze the risks of technological innovation.
【学位授予单位】：安徽工程大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F273.1;F426.92

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