我国城市住区碳足迹计算与情景演化分析

发布时间：2018-04-06 05:38

本文选题：碳足迹　切入点：城市住区　出处：《大连理工大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：自上个世纪末以来,全球气候变化问题成为了全球关注的热点,限排、减排、碳交易也成了各个国家都在研究的重要课题。我国虽不是《框架公约》下负有减排任务的-方,但中国政府本着人道主义精神、对全人类负责的精神,已在公开场合明确宣布到2020年单位GDP碳排放比2005年下降45%的目标,为实现这一目标中国的碳减排之路任重而道远。城市住宅小区是人们生活的主要场所,也是碳排放的重要源头之一,根据统计我国建筑业的碳足迹已占到所有碳足迹的30%左右。城市住区的建设面积正处于高速增长阶段,而建筑业还远远没有达到可持续发展的要求,减排空间巨大。本论文以我国城市住区碳足迹为研究对象、通过文献研究、数据分析与演算以及利用聚类分析、关联度分析、情景演化分析等方法开展研究。首先就城市住区碳足迹的相关基础理论给予界定及分析。定义了城市住区碳足迹边界、功能单位及排放源,并阐述了不同排放源的计算方法及排放因子。然后将我国城市住区碳足迹分为建筑相关、居民相关碳足迹两方面,并分别建立模型、计算,并分别采用聚类分析及关联度分析方法,得出影响碳足迹的主要因素。最后利用测算数据,采用不同的预测方法对我国城市住区碳足迹进行预测分析,并通过调节演化系数,设定未来碳足迹的四种情景,得出不同情景下不同时期内的碳足迹演化趋势。
[Abstract]:Since the end of last century, global climate change has become the focus of global attention, emissions limitation, emission reduction, carbon trading has become an important issue for all countries.Although China is not the party with the task of reducing emissions under the Framework Convention, the Chinese Government, in the spirit of humanitarianism and responsibility to all mankind, has explicitly announced in public the target of reducing its GDP carbon emissions per unit by 45% by 2020 compared with 2005.China has a long way to go to achieve this goal.Urban residential district is the main place for people to live and one of the important sources of carbon emissions. According to statistics, the carbon footprint of construction industry in China has accounted for about 30% of all carbon footprint.The construction area of urban residential area is in the stage of rapid growth, but the construction industry is far from meeting the requirements of sustainable development, and the space for emission reduction is huge.In this paper, the carbon footprint of urban settlements in China is taken as the research object, through literature research, data analysis and calculation, as well as the use of cluster analysis, correlation analysis, scenario evolution analysis and other methods to carry out the research.Firstly, it defines and analyzes the basic theory of urban residential carbon footprint.The carbon footprint boundary, functional units and emission sources in urban settlements are defined, and the calculation methods and emission factors of different emission sources are described.Then, the carbon footprint of urban residential areas in our country is divided into two aspects: building related and resident related carbon footprint, and the models are established, calculated, and cluster analysis and correlation degree analysis are used to obtain the main factors that affect the carbon footprint.Finally, using the measuring data, using different forecasting methods to forecast and analyze the carbon footprint of urban residential areas in China, and setting four scenarios of future carbon footprint by adjusting the evolution coefficient.The evolution trend of carbon footprint under different scenarios and different periods was obtained.
【学位授予单位】：大连理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：TU984.12;X32

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