集中供暖系统热负荷预测及运行优化

发布时间：2018-06-19 04:00

本文选题：供暖参数 + 热量调节法　；参考：《天津大学》2013年博士论文

【摘要】：集中供暖系统由于其自身的优点，得到了普遍的推广和应用，但是，集中供暖系统的能耗却居高不下。集中供暖系统的不合理的运行调节方式是造成其能耗偏高的主要原因之一。本文分析了集中供暖系统在运行过程中存在的问题，对集中供暖系统的运行过程进行了深入的优化研究，主要包括供暖热负荷的预测、热源的优化调度、供暖参数的优化选择以及优化结果的敏感性分析。把集中供暖系统与灰色系统比较后发现，当研究供暖热负荷时，可以把集中供暖系统作为灰色系统进行研究。引入了灰色系统理论，结合具体的工程实例，研究了常规灰色模型与新陈代谢灰色模型在供暖热负荷的预测中的应用，结果表明新陈代谢灰色模型能够比较准确的对供暖热负荷进行预测。重点分析了预测模型中原始数据的个数对预测精度的影响程度，结果表明合适的原始数据个数可以使预测模型取得更加满意的预测精度。引入灰色关联法，结合具体工程实例，进一步研究了相关的参数对供暖热负荷的影响程度。提出了在供暖热负荷的预测值的基础上，，实施热量调节的运行策略。使用最优化方法，对热量的生产过程和热量的输送过程进行了优化研究。分别从经济性和节能性的角度，建立了热源优化调度的数学模型以及热量输送过程的优化模型，并将相应的优化模型应用到具体的工程实例中，使用MATLAB软件对优化模型编程求解，得到了热源优化调度的结果以及热量输送过程的优化调节方案，验证了优化模型的正确性。使用敏感性分析的方法，分析了集中供暖系统中的相关参数对优化结果的影响程度，分别得到了这些参数对优化结果的影响程度的大小关系。本文对集中供暖系统的运行调节方式进行了优化，包括热量的生产过程和热量的输送过程。在保证按需供暖的前提下，这种优化的运行调节方式能够更加有效的使用能源，减少能源消耗，降低运行成本。
[Abstract]:The central heating system has been popularized and applied widely because of its own advantages, but the energy consumption of the central heating system is still high. The unreasonable operation and regulation of central heating system is one of the main reasons for its high energy consumption. This paper analyzes the problems existing in the operation of central heating system, and makes a deep study on the operation process of central heating system, mainly including the prediction of heating heat load, the optimal scheduling of heat source. Optimization of heating parameters and sensitivity analysis of optimization results. By comparing the central heating system with the grey system, it is found that the central heating system can be studied as a grey system when the heating load is studied. This paper introduces the theory of grey system and studies the application of conventional grey model and metabolic grey model in heat load prediction of heating. The results show that the metabolism grey model can predict heating load accurately. The influence of the number of the original data on the prediction accuracy is analyzed. The results show that the suitable number of the original data can make the prediction model obtain more satisfactory prediction accuracy. The influence of relevant parameters on heating heat load is further studied by introducing grey correlation method and combining with concrete engineering examples. Based on the forecast value of heating load, the operation strategy of heat regulation is put forward. The optimization method is used to optimize the heat production process and heat transfer process. From the point of view of economy and energy saving, the mathematical model of heat source optimal scheduling and the optimization model of heat transfer process are established, and the corresponding optimization model is applied to concrete engineering examples. The optimization model is solved by MATLAB software, and the results of heat source optimization scheduling and the optimization adjustment scheme of heat transfer process are obtained, and the correctness of the optimization model is verified. The sensitivity analysis method is used to analyze the influence degree of the relevant parameters in the central heating system on the optimization results, and the relationship between the influence degree of these parameters on the optimization results is obtained respectively. This paper optimizes the operation and regulation of central heating system, including heat production process and heat transfer process. On the premise of on-demand heating, the optimized operation regulation method can use energy more effectively, reduce energy consumption and reduce operation cost.
【学位授予单位】：天津大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：TU995

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