我国建筑低碳化发展研究

发布时间：2018-08-01 08:33

【摘要】：面对气候变暖，国际社会采取了一系列发展低碳经济的举措。为此，我国政府也及时地制定了本国的低碳经济发展计划，围绕该计划学术界展开了大量探索。然鲜有从建筑的角度进行研究的。实际上，建筑碳排量占社会碳排量的比例超过四分之一，，成为社会三大碳源中仅次于工业的第二大碳源。其中，建筑运行又是建筑全生命周期碳排量构成中的重要一环，占比高达75%以上，具备减排成本相对较低的特征。因此，研究建筑低碳化特别是建筑运行低碳化具有较大的实践与理论意义。本文首先通过文献归纳法得出低碳建筑的内涵，综述理论界截止目前关于低碳建筑的评价指标、碳排放、影响因素以及财税政策的研究现状。以此为基础，借助宏观模型法以及IPCC碳排放系数法分别测算1985-2009年间我国建筑能耗以及碳排放量，并运用计量模型法对建筑碳排量的长期发展趋势进行研究；接着通过因素分解法进行碳排量的影响因素研究。居于此，以几何模型法对建筑低碳化发展路径进行了分析，为相关政策建议的提出提供理论铺垫。论文主要得出以下几个结论：第一、低碳建筑的核心在于“一个中心”——低碳排放，“两个基本点”——能源结构和能源效率以及“一个归宿”——实现人类社会的可持续发展。并且，低碳建筑包括广义与狭义两个层面。第二、1985-2009年，用能建筑结构上，公共建筑和北方城镇建筑采暖能耗占比快速提高，住宅建筑则有所降低；能源结构上，煤炭消耗比例降低、电力以及天然气、液化石油气等气体能源消耗比例提高。第三、我国建筑碳排量由1985年的4.85亿t提升到2009年的15.95亿t，年均增长率为5.22%。并且碳库茨涅茨曲线假说在建筑碳排量中并不成立，而是一条U型的曲线。第四、促进建筑低碳化发展就是要优化建筑能源结构、降低能源强度以及电力碳排放强度。并且发展成效显著与否直接取决于能源结构的优化、能源强度以及电力碳排放强度的降低所带来的抑制作用能否显著抵消经济发展水平提高和人口规模扩大所带来的推动作用。论文的创新主要体现在三个方面：第一，在研究视角上进行了创新。指出低碳建筑需要从全生命周期与运行两个角度进行广义与狭义的把握，并且从建筑运行的视角展开了论文的研究。第二、指出低碳建筑不是一个新的事物，在我国农业社会就存在传统低碳建筑的缩影。只是在低碳经济的发展环境下，重塑了低碳建筑的内涵，突出地要求通过碳排量来评价建筑以达到社会减碳的目标。第三、指出促进我国建筑低碳化发展需要着重优化能源结构、降低能源强度和电力碳排放强度。当然，论文忽略了建筑碳汇因素，对国内外的比较研究还显得不够充分，同时理论分析也略显不足，成为论文的主要缺陷。
[Abstract]:In the face of climate warming, the international community has taken a series of measures to develop a low-carbon economy. Therefore, our government has also formulated our country's low-carbon economy development plan in time, has carried on the massive exploration around the plan academic circles. However, there are few from the point of view of architecture. In fact, the proportion of building carbon emission to social carbon emission is more than 1/4, which is the second largest carbon source after industry. Among them, building operation is an important part of carbon emission in the whole life cycle of building, which accounts for more than 75% of the total carbon emission and has the characteristics of relatively low cost of emission reduction. Therefore, it is of great practical and theoretical significance to study the low carbonization of buildings, especially the low carbonization of buildings. In this paper, the connotation of low-carbon building is obtained by the method of literature induction, and the current research status of evaluation index, carbon emission, influencing factors and fiscal and tax policy of low-carbon building is summarized. Based on this, we calculate the energy consumption and carbon emission from 1985 to 2009 with the help of macroscopic model method and IPCC carbon emission coefficient method, and study the long-term development trend of building carbon emission by means of econometric model. Then factors affecting carbon emission are studied by factor decomposition method. In this paper, the development path of low carbonization of buildings is analyzed by geometric model method, which provides a theoretical basis for the proposal of relevant policies. The main conclusions are as follows: first, the core of low-carbon building is "one center"-low carbon emissions, "two basic points"-energy structure and energy efficiency and one home-to achieve sustainable development of human society. Moreover, low-carbon building includes two levels: broad sense and narrow sense. Second, from 1985 to 2009, the proportion of heating energy consumption in public buildings and buildings in northern cities and towns increased rapidly, while that in residential buildings decreased; in energy structure, the proportion of coal consumption decreased, and the proportion of electricity and natural gas decreased. LPG and other gas energy consumption increased. Thirdly, the carbon emission of buildings in China increased from 485 million tons in 1985 to 1.595 billion tons in 2009, with an average annual growth rate of 5.22 tons. Moreover, the carbon Kutznitz curve hypothesis does not hold true in the carbon emission of buildings, but is a U-shaped curve. Fourth, to promote the development of building low-carbon is to optimize the building energy structure, reduce the energy intensity and power carbon emission intensity. And whether the development effect is significant or not depends directly on the optimization of energy structure, and whether the inhibition effect brought by the reduction of energy intensity and carbon emission intensity of electric power can significantly offset the driving effect brought by the improvement of economic development level and the expansion of population scale. The innovation of the thesis is mainly reflected in three aspects: first, innovation in the perspective of research. It is pointed out that low-carbon buildings need to be grasped in a broad sense and in a narrow sense from the perspective of the whole life cycle and operation, and the research of the thesis is carried out from the perspective of building operation. Secondly, it points out that low carbon building is not a new thing, and there is a microcosm of traditional low carbon building in agricultural society of our country. Only in the development environment of low carbon economy, the connotation of low carbon building has been reshaped, and the carbon emission should be used to evaluate the construction so as to achieve the goal of reducing carbon in society. Thirdly, it is pointed out that it is necessary to optimize the energy structure and reduce the energy intensity and carbon emission intensity in order to promote the development of low carbonization of buildings in China. Of course, the paper ignored the building carbon sink factors, the comparative study at home and abroad is not enough, at the same time, the theoretical analysis is also slightly inadequate, becoming the main defect of the paper.
【学位授予单位】：浙江理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：X322;TU-023

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