基于灰色预测的建设工程造价指数分析研究
发布时间：2018-12-16 16:49
【摘要】：建设工程造价指数作为掌握建设项目动态造价重要的手段之一，，通过对已完工程数据进行收集与分析，为建设项目各方提供准确的计价依据和项目管理信息。目前，我国尚未建立完整统一的建设工程造价指数体系，也并未广泛地应用到实际建设项目中。因此，编制和研究工程造价指数并提出预测方法，为完善我国建设工程造价指数的实施和合理确定建设工程造价有着较强的现实意义。 论文结合国内外建设工程造价指数的编制及实际应用，基于工程量清单的组成内容以及我国建筑市场的实际情况，组构了工程造价指数体系。建立了建设工程造价各项指数模型。在构建工程造价指数的过程中，引入加权综合指数的数学理论，将已完工程综合信息进行量化，建立了工程造价指数模型。运用灰色理论对工程造价指数的变化趋势进行预测，并对预测结果进行检验。通过工程实例的分析，验证了方法的可行性。为我国建设工程造价指数的构建及应用提供了参考价值，为不断完善我国工程造价指数的实施做出贡献。
[Abstract]:As one of the important means to grasp the dynamic cost of construction project, the construction cost index can provide accurate valuation basis and project management information for the construction project parties by collecting and analyzing the completed project data. At present, China has not established a complete and unified construction cost index system, nor has it been widely used in actual construction projects. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to compile and study the engineering cost index and put forward the prediction method for perfecting the implementation of the construction cost index and reasonably determining the construction cost in our country. Combined with the compilation and practical application of the construction cost index at home and abroad, based on the contents of the bill of quantities and the actual situation of the construction market in our country, the paper constructs the construction cost index system. The index model of construction cost is established. In the process of constructing the project cost index, the mathematical theory of weighted composite index is introduced, and the comprehensive information of the completed project is quantified, and the project cost index model is established. The grey theory is used to predict the change trend of engineering cost index, and the forecast result is tested. The feasibility of the method is verified by the analysis of engineering examples. It provides a reference value for the construction and application of the construction cost index in China, and contributes to the continuous improvement of the implementation of the construction cost index in China.
【学位授予单位】：西安建筑科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：TU723.3
本文编号：2382720
[Abstract]:As one of the important means to grasp the dynamic cost of construction project, the construction cost index can provide accurate valuation basis and project management information for the construction project parties by collecting and analyzing the completed project data. At present, China has not established a complete and unified construction cost index system, nor has it been widely used in actual construction projects. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to compile and study the engineering cost index and put forward the prediction method for perfecting the implementation of the construction cost index and reasonably determining the construction cost in our country. Combined with the compilation and practical application of the construction cost index at home and abroad, based on the contents of the bill of quantities and the actual situation of the construction market in our country, the paper constructs the construction cost index system. The index model of construction cost is established. In the process of constructing the project cost index, the mathematical theory of weighted composite index is introduced, and the comprehensive information of the completed project is quantified, and the project cost index model is established. The grey theory is used to predict the change trend of engineering cost index, and the forecast result is tested. The feasibility of the method is verified by the analysis of engineering examples. It provides a reference value for the construction and application of the construction cost index in China, and contributes to the continuous improvement of the implementation of the construction cost index in China.
【学位授予单位】：西安建筑科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：TU723.3
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