低碳建设项目规划情景分析法研究

发布时间：2019-04-09 21:16

【摘要】：低碳发展是近年来全球为了应对气候变化而诞生的新的理念和行动，其核心是减少发展过程中产生的碳排放。在城市社区碳排放中，，建筑和交通的碳排放占据的比重已经越来越大。从城市社区和建设项目的角度，对碳减排进行分析，是建设工程领域需要迫切解决的问题。情景分析法在低碳建设项目规划阶段具有重要的使用价值，它可以分析和描述低碳建设项目规划的不同情形组合，探寻项目最佳的低碳发展路径。利用情景分析法，从建设项目前期规划的角度来研究降低建设项目碳排放量的措施和方法，具有典型的意义。本文以低碳城市建设与社区规划、建设项目策划和统计预测两个理论为支撑，结合对情景分析法概念内涵、适用对象和应用实践三个方面的深入分析，提出了低碳建设项目规划的情景分析流程，即情景方案设计、情景概率建模、情景方案描述和情景分析总结。按此流程对低碳建设项目规划进行了情景分析，描述了低碳建设项目规划的最佳理想型、平均水平型和最低限度型三种情景类型，总结了不同情景碳减排的计算方法，最后从项目土地的集约利用、能源的可持续利用、居民参与意识和社区生态资源循环链四个方面归纳出了低碳建设项目的规划策略。本文选取了百步亭社区低碳建设项目规划和单体建筑规划两个案例进行了重点研究。通过百步亭社区低碳建设项目规划案例，识别出了影响社区低碳发展的五个核心因素，即经济发展水平、低碳发展政策、低碳建设技术、低碳社会意识和周边环境影响；通过计算关键事件发生和组合的概率，得出了社区低碳发展最理想化的情景的概率。通过单体建筑规划案例，对单体建筑的三种不同低碳情景进行了描述和分析，参照基准建筑计算了不同情景的碳减排量。
[Abstract]:Low-carbon development is a new idea and action to deal with climate change in recent years. The core of low-carbon development is to reduce carbon emissions in the process of development. Construction and transportation account for more and more carbon emissions in urban communities. From the perspective of urban communities and construction projects, the analysis of carbon emission reduction is an urgent problem to be solved in the field of construction engineering. Scenario analysis plays an important role in the planning stage of low-carbon construction project. It can analyze and describe the combination of different situations of low-carbon construction project planning and explore the best low-carbon development path of the project. It is of typical significance to study the measures and methods to reduce the carbon emissions of construction projects from the perspective of the preliminary planning of construction projects by using scenario analysis method. Based on the theories of low-carbon city construction and community planning, construction project planning and statistical prediction, this paper makes an in-depth analysis of the concept connotation, applicable object and application practice of scenario analysis method. The scenario analysis process of low carbon construction project planning is put forward, that is, scenario scheme design, scenario probability modeling, scenario scheme description and scenario analysis summary. According to this process, the scenario analysis of low-carbon construction project planning is carried out, the optimal ideal type, average level type and minimum level type of low-carbon construction project planning are described, and the calculation methods of carbon emission reduction in different scenarios are summarized. Finally, the planning strategy of low-carbon construction project is summarized from four aspects: intensive use of project land, sustainable use of energy, awareness of residents' participation and circulation chain of community ecological resources. This paper chooses two cases of low-carbon construction project planning and single building planning of Baibu Pavilion community to carry on the key research. Through the planning case of the low-carbon construction project of the Baibu Pavilion community, five core factors affecting the low-carbon development of the community are identified, that is, the level of economic development, low-carbon development policy, low-carbon construction technology, low-carbon social awareness and the surrounding environmental impact; By calculating the probability of the occurrence and combination of the key events, the probability of the most ideal scenario of low carbon development in the community is obtained. In this paper, three different low carbon scenarios of single building are described and analyzed, and the carbon emission reduction of different scenarios is calculated according to the reference building.
【学位授予单位】：华中科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：TU71;X322

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