海外基础设施EPC项目实施阶段集成风险管理研究

发布时间：2019-04-10 20:03

【摘要】：集成风险管理已成为风险管理发展的新趋势和新方向,但国内外对其在基础设施EPC项目领域的研究和应用尚处于起步阶段。研究如何采用集成风险管理方法管理海外基础设施EPC项目中的各种风险,有助于中国承包商开拓并立足国际基础设施EPC项目建设市场。本文首先根据海外基础设施EPC项目实施阶段的项目特点总结出海外基础设施EPC项目实施阶段包括多样性、多层次性在内的11个风险特点,并由此引出集成风险管理概念,指出了集成风险管理的必要性。其次,针对海外基础设施EPC总承包项目实施阶段风险产生的过程特点,提出了海外基础设施EPC项目实施阶段的集成风险管理流程,此流程由风险管理规划、风险识别、风险分析、风险应对、风险监控、风险管理评审6个阶段构成。在流程运用中采用核对表法对海外基础设施EPC项目实施阶段面临的各种风险进行了初步识别,总结出了中国承包商海外基础设施EPC总承包项目实施阶段的风险类别和清单,共识别出技术风险、相关方风险等6大风险类别,成本超支、设计失误等29项具体风险因素和现金流缺乏等28项风险来源。在风险识别的基础上,利用层次分析法对海外基础设施EPC项目进行了风险分析,给出了海外基础设施EPC项目实施阶段风险评价的层次分析模型。再次,为使风险管理流程所涉及的6个阶段循环往复地动起来,实现持续有效的全方位风险管理,本文提出了海外基础设施EPC项目实施阶段集成风险管理的系统框架和管理措施。系统框架由5个要素构成,即风险管理目标、风险管理组织、风险管理系统方法、风险管理信息系统和风险管理文化。最后,本文分析了国内某承包商承建的海外某轻轨项目实施阶段的主要风险类别,列出了风险清单,并采用专家打分法对风险了进行评价,给出了项目实施阶段的二维风险图,提出了联合式集成风险管理的组织形式和联合式集成风险管理的实现模式。本文不仅对中国承包商海外基础设施EPC项目实施阶段的集成风险管理流程、系统框架和管理措施进行了研究,同时结合具体案例对提出的理论方法进行分析和论证,为中国承包商有效管理海外基础设施EPC项目的各种风险提供了新思路和新手段,对完善EPC总承包项目风险管理的研究起到了积极的推动作用。
[Abstract]:Integrated risk management has become a new trend and direction in the development of risk management, but the research and application of integrated risk management in the field of infrastructure EPC projects at home and abroad is still in the initial stage. The research on how to manage all kinds of risks in overseas infrastructure EPC projects by means of integrated risk management is helpful for Chinese contractors to explore and base themselves on the international infrastructure EPC project construction market. Firstly, according to the project characteristics of overseas infrastructure EPC project implementation phase, this paper summarizes 11 risk characteristics of overseas infrastructure EPC project implementation phase, including diversity and multi-level, and then leads to the concept of integrated risk management. The necessity of integrated risk management is pointed out. Secondly, according to the process characteristics of overseas infrastructure EPC general contracting project, the integrated risk management process in the implementation phase of overseas infrastructure EPC project is put forward. This process is based on risk management planning and risk identification. Risk analysis, risk response, risk monitoring, risk management review six stages constitute. In the process application, a checklist method is used to identify the risks in the implementation phase of overseas infrastructure EPC projects, and the risk categories and lists of Chinese contractors during the implementation phase of overseas infrastructure EPC general contracting projects are summarized. Six major risk categories, such as technical risk, related party risk, cost overrun, design error, and 28 risk sources, were identified, including 29 specific risk factors such as cost overrun, and 28 risk sources such as lack of cash flow. On the basis of risk identification, the risk analysis of overseas infrastructure EPC project is carried out by using analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) model of risk evaluation in the implementation phase of overseas infrastructure EPC project is given. Thirdly, in order to enable the six phases involved in the risk management process to cycle back and forth, and to achieve continuous and effective all-round risk management, This paper puts forward the system framework and management measures of integrated risk management in the implementation phase of overseas infrastructure EPC project. The system framework consists of five elements, namely, risk management objective, risk management organization, risk management system methodology, risk management information system and risk management culture. Finally, this paper analyzes the main risk categories of an overseas light rail project undertaken by a domestic contractor, lists the risk list, evaluates the risk by expert scoring method, and gives the two-dimensional risk diagram of the project implementation phase. The organization form of combined integrated risk management and the realization mode of combined integrated risk management are put forward. This paper not only studies the integrated risk management process, system framework and management measures in the implementation phase of overseas infrastructure EPC projects of Chinese contractors, but also analyzes and demonstrates the theory and methods put forward in the light of specific cases. It provides a new idea and new means for Chinese contractors to effectively manage various risks of overseas infrastructure EPC projects, and plays an active role in improving the research of risk management of EPC general contracting projects.
【学位授予单位】：中国科学院大学(工程管理与信息技术学院)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：TU71

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