基于概率可靠度的人员安全疏散不确定性问题研究
发布时间：2019-04-19 22:47
【摘要】：火灾发生后,如何确保人员的生命安全是最值得关注的问题,也是首要的安全目标。火灾的发生和发展具有着双重性的规律,人员安全疏散同样具有确定性和不确定性的双重特点。由于人员安全疏散的影响因素众多,存在着很多的不确定性,因此如何正确处理这些不确定性是需要深入研究的关键技术问题。本文是利用概率可靠度的方法对人员安全疏散的不确定性问题进行研究,通过本文的研究,对于提高火灾环境下的人员安全疏散具有重要的指导意义。 本文从人员特征、建筑结构特点和火源情况三个方面系统分析了建筑火灾人员安全疏散的不确定性影响因素。有效集成了DEMATEL和ISM两种方法。运用ISM方法构建了建筑火灾人员安全疏散影响因素的结构化模型,分析了影响人员安全疏散的表层原因、浅层原因和深层原因。利用DEMATEL方法对人员安全疏散的影响因素进行了定量分析,同时对人员安全疏散的影响因素进行了数学表征。分析了各因素之间的综合影响关系及各因素对人员安全疏散的影响程度,找到了影响人员安全疏散的关键影响因素。该研究可以为相关部门的管理和决策提供一定的科学依据。 探讨了表征人员疏散安全水平的基本理论和方法,通过比对可用安全疏散时间和必需安全疏散时间,引入安全时间余量来表征人员疏散的安全水平,通过求解概率可靠度指标和失效概率来定量评价人员疏散的安全情况。通过正交试验、响应面法建立了以烟气层温度和烟气层高度分别作为判据的可用安全疏散时间的随机模型。在此基础上,构建了以烟气层温度和烟气层高度分别作为判据的人员安全疏散的概率可靠度分析模型,研究了两个可靠度分析模型之间的串并联关系,提出了根据两者之间的串并联关系求解多种模式失效下的体系失效概率的计算方法。 介绍了用于求解概率可靠度指标的常用计算方法,均值一次二阶矩法、改进的一次二阶矩法、当量正态化法和蒙特卡罗方法。分析了各种方法的优缺点及适用范围,针对其他方法存在的不足,在前人基础上发展了用于求解概率可靠度指标的优化算法,利用两个人员安全疏散的概率可靠度分析模型加以实例进行了验证。另外就本文所建的概率可靠度分析模型和已有模型进行了对比研究。同时,研究了火灾增长系数、建筑高度和安全出口宽度对可靠度指标和失效概率的影响关系。 引入了可靠性灵敏度和灵敏度梯度的理论和方法,通过实例分析了人员安全疏散各个影响因素的灵敏度,通过失效概率对均值和标准差的偏导数,研究了火灾增长系数、人员响应时间、人员密度和门的出口涌流能力参数的分布情况对人员安全疏散的影响关系。
[Abstract]:After the fire, how to ensure the safety of personnel is the most important issue and the primary safety goal. The occurrence and development of fire is dualistic, and the safety evacuation is also characterized by certainty and uncertainty. Because there are many influencing factors and uncertainties in evacuation, how to deal with these uncertainties correctly is a key technical problem that needs to be studied in depth. In this paper, the method of probabilistic reliability is used to study the uncertainty of evacuation. Through the study of this paper, it is of great significance to improve the safety of evacuation in fire environment. In this paper, the uncertain factors affecting the safety evacuation of building fire personnel are systematically analyzed from the aspects of personnel characteristics, building structure characteristics and fire sources. The two methods, DEMATEL and ISM, are effectively integrated. The structural model of influencing factors of safety evacuation of building fire personnel is constructed by using ISM method, and the surface cause, shallow cause and deep cause of influencing safety evacuation of building fire are analyzed. In this paper, the DEMATEL method is used to quantitatively analyze the influencing factors of the safety evacuation of personnel, and the mathematical representation of the influencing factors of the safety evacuation of the personnel is carried out at the same time. This paper analyzes the comprehensive influence relationship among the factors and the influence degree of each factor on the safety evacuation of personnel, and finds out the key influencing factors of the safety evacuation of personnel. This research can provide certain scientific basis for the management and decision-making of relevant departments. The basic theory and method to characterize the safety level of personnel evacuation are discussed. The safety level of personnel evacuation is characterized by comparing the available safety evacuation time with the necessary safety evacuation time, and introducing the safety time allowance to represent the safety level of personnel evacuation. The safety of evacuation is quantitatively evaluated by solving the probabilistic reliability index and failure probability. By means of orthogonal test and response surface method, a random model of available safe evacuation time is established, which is based on the smoke layer temperature and smoke layer height as the criterions respectively. On the basis of this, the probabilistic reliability analysis model of personnel safety evacuation based on smoke layer temperature and smoke layer height is constructed, and the series-parallel relationship between the two reliability analysis models is studied. Based on the series-parallel relationship between the two systems, a method is proposed to calculate the failure probability of the system under various modes of failure. In this paper, the common calculation methods for probabilistic reliability index are introduced, such as the mean first second moment method, the improved first second order moment method, the equivalent normal method and the Monte Carlo method. The advantages and disadvantages of each method and its application range are analyzed. In view of the shortcomings of other methods, an optimization algorithm for solving probabilistic reliability index is developed on the basis of predecessors. It is verified by two probabilistic reliability analysis models of safety evacuation. In addition, the probabilistic reliability analysis model established in this paper is compared with the existing model. At the same time, the effects of fire growth coefficient, building height and safety exit width on reliability index and failure probability are studied. In this paper, the theory and method of reliability sensitivity and sensitivity gradient are introduced, and the sensitivity of each influencing factor of safety evacuation is analyzed by an example. The fire growth coefficient is studied by the partial derivative of failure probability to mean value and standard deviation, and the theory and method of reliability sensitivity and sensitivity gradient are introduced in this paper. The influence of the distribution of personnel response time, personnel density and gate outlet inrush capacity parameters on the safety evacuation of personnel.
【学位授予单位】：中国科学技术大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：TU998.1
本文编号：2461358
[Abstract]:After the fire, how to ensure the safety of personnel is the most important issue and the primary safety goal. The occurrence and development of fire is dualistic, and the safety evacuation is also characterized by certainty and uncertainty. Because there are many influencing factors and uncertainties in evacuation, how to deal with these uncertainties correctly is a key technical problem that needs to be studied in depth. In this paper, the method of probabilistic reliability is used to study the uncertainty of evacuation. Through the study of this paper, it is of great significance to improve the safety of evacuation in fire environment. In this paper, the uncertain factors affecting the safety evacuation of building fire personnel are systematically analyzed from the aspects of personnel characteristics, building structure characteristics and fire sources. The two methods, DEMATEL and ISM, are effectively integrated. The structural model of influencing factors of safety evacuation of building fire personnel is constructed by using ISM method, and the surface cause, shallow cause and deep cause of influencing safety evacuation of building fire are analyzed. In this paper, the DEMATEL method is used to quantitatively analyze the influencing factors of the safety evacuation of personnel, and the mathematical representation of the influencing factors of the safety evacuation of the personnel is carried out at the same time. This paper analyzes the comprehensive influence relationship among the factors and the influence degree of each factor on the safety evacuation of personnel, and finds out the key influencing factors of the safety evacuation of personnel. This research can provide certain scientific basis for the management and decision-making of relevant departments. The basic theory and method to characterize the safety level of personnel evacuation are discussed. The safety level of personnel evacuation is characterized by comparing the available safety evacuation time with the necessary safety evacuation time, and introducing the safety time allowance to represent the safety level of personnel evacuation. The safety of evacuation is quantitatively evaluated by solving the probabilistic reliability index and failure probability. By means of orthogonal test and response surface method, a random model of available safe evacuation time is established, which is based on the smoke layer temperature and smoke layer height as the criterions respectively. On the basis of this, the probabilistic reliability analysis model of personnel safety evacuation based on smoke layer temperature and smoke layer height is constructed, and the series-parallel relationship between the two reliability analysis models is studied. Based on the series-parallel relationship between the two systems, a method is proposed to calculate the failure probability of the system under various modes of failure. In this paper, the common calculation methods for probabilistic reliability index are introduced, such as the mean first second moment method, the improved first second order moment method, the equivalent normal method and the Monte Carlo method. The advantages and disadvantages of each method and its application range are analyzed. In view of the shortcomings of other methods, an optimization algorithm for solving probabilistic reliability index is developed on the basis of predecessors. It is verified by two probabilistic reliability analysis models of safety evacuation. In addition, the probabilistic reliability analysis model established in this paper is compared with the existing model. At the same time, the effects of fire growth coefficient, building height and safety exit width on reliability index and failure probability are studied. In this paper, the theory and method of reliability sensitivity and sensitivity gradient are introduced, and the sensitivity of each influencing factor of safety evacuation is analyzed by an example. The fire growth coefficient is studied by the partial derivative of failure probability to mean value and standard deviation, and the theory and method of reliability sensitivity and sensitivity gradient are introduced in this paper. The influence of the distribution of personnel response time, personnel density and gate outlet inrush capacity parameters on the safety evacuation of personnel.
【学位授予单位】：中国科学技术大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：TU998.1
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