基于模糊粗糙集方法的国际工程项目承包风险评价研究

发布时间：2019-04-24 13:13

【摘要】：随着经济全球化的发展，我国承包工程企业在实施“走出去”的宏观战略下，得到了飞速的发展，截止2012年上半年，全球180多个国家和地区，都有我国承包商承包的项目，，涉猎的范围和劳务合作数量还在继续增长。但是，比较于承包国内的工程，国际工程项目的合同金额相对都比较大，涉及的工程范围广，专业更精细，学科门类也更多，还必然面临与其他发达国家承包商的激烈竞争，以及来自政治、经济、文化、法律和市场等诸多方面的风险，而我国承包企业尚未建立和实施有效的风险管理程序。论文以我国承包商的视角对国际工程项目承包风险管理进行了分析和阐述，分别从国际工程项目特点、国际工程项目风险本质以及国际工程项目的实施全过程进行了全面的分析和研究。论文首先对国际工程项目承包风险进行了基础理论的概述，对国际工程的特点，国际工程项目承包风险分别进行了分析，探讨了国际工程项目承包风险的生成机理，揭示了国际工程项目承包风险之间的连锁反应关系。第二步，在通过一般风险分类的基础上，分析了国际工程项目承包中存在的风险因素，罗列出了国际工程项目承包实施全过程的风险因素清单；第三步，论文运用粗糙理论，对假设的50个国际工程项目承包风险因素进行优化，建立指标模型，再结合问卷调查和专家咨询的方法，建立了国际工程项目承包风险评价指标体系假设，进行实证检验，得出了34个对国际工程项目承包具有显著性影响的关键性风险因素，构建了国际工程项目承包风险评价指标体系；第四步，通过几种综合评价方法的比较，选择模糊综合评价方法，提出了多级模糊综合评价模型，结合四个国际工程项目为例，进行了国际工程项目承包风险的实证检验，最后针对前面的分析提出了一些可行的风险防范措施和处理策略。
[Abstract]:With the development of economic globalization, under the macro-strategy of "going out", the contracting engineering enterprises in our country have got rapid development. As of the first half of 2012, more than 180 countries and regions all over the world have contracted projects by contractors in our country. The scope of coverage and the number of labor cooperation continues to grow. However, compared to contracting domestic projects, the amount of contracts for international projects is relatively large, involving a wide range of projects, more specialties and more disciplines, and it is bound to face fierce competition with contractors in other developed countries. There are many risks from politics, economy, culture, law and market, but our contracting enterprises have not established and implemented effective risk management procedures. This paper analyzes and expounds the risk management of international engineering project contracting from the perspective of Chinese contractor, respectively from the characteristics of international engineering project. The risk essence of the international engineering project and the whole process of the implementation of the international engineering project are analyzed and studied in an all-round way. Firstly, the paper summarizes the basic theory of international engineering project contracting risk, analyzes the characteristics of international engineering project and international engineering project contracting risk, and probes into the generating mechanism of international engineering project contracting risk. The chain reaction relationship between contract risk of international engineering project is revealed. In the second step, on the basis of general risk classification, the risk factors in international project contracting are analyzed, and the list of risk factors in the whole process of international project contracting is listed. In the third step, using rough theory, the paper optimizes the assumed risk factors of 50 international engineering projects, establishes the index model, and then combines the methods of questionnaire investigation and expert consultation. Based on the hypothesis of risk evaluation index system of international engineering project contracting, 34 key risk factors which have significant influence on international engineering project contracting are obtained by empirical test. The risk evaluation index system of international project contracting has been constructed. In the fourth step, through the comparison of several comprehensive evaluation methods, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is selected, and a multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model is put forward. Based on the examples of four international engineering projects, the empirical test of international engineering project contracting risk is carried out. Finally, some feasible risk prevention measures and treatment strategies are put forward for the previous analysis.
【学位授予单位】：重庆大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：TU712

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