天然气长输管道地区等级升级管理与风险评价

发布时间：2018-01-12 11:21

本文关键词：天然气长输管道地区等级升级管理与风险评价　出处：《天然气工业》2017年01期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：为了有效管理和控制地区等级升级后所引起的输气管道风险变化,有必要依据管道完整性管理的基本原则,结合输气管道地区等级变化条件,制订相应的管理流程,建立风险评价模型,并提出风险管控原则。为此,首先结合地区等级划分标准识别高后果区,分类管理地区等级升级后的管段。然后,评价地区等级升级后管段的风险水平:①引入模糊语言与其量化值修正EGIG统计的失效概率,得到适用于特定管段的总失效概率;②按最严重事故后果选取蒸气云爆炸模型进行计算,依据泄漏50%致死率估算出死亡人数作为后果等级评价标准;③依据失效概率与失效后果,利用风险矩阵评定风险等级。最后引入风险可接受准则,分析管道泄漏的个人风险与社会风险,判定管道地区等级升级后的风险可接受性。案例分析结果表明:①地区等级升级后天然气长输管道风险也随之增大;②对于升级后风险增大的管段,需根据风险管控原则决定是否采取安全措施。
[Abstract]:In order to effectively manage and control the risk change of gas pipeline caused by the upgrading of regional grade, it is necessary to combine the condition of regional grade change of gas pipeline according to the basic principle of pipeline integrity management. Make the corresponding management process, establish risk assessment model, and put forward the risk management principles. Firstly, combined with the regional classification standards to identify high-consequence areas, classified management of regional grades after the upgrading of the section. Then. Evaluating the risk level of the pipe segment after the regional grade upgrading: 1 introduces fuzzy language and its quantization value to modify the failure probability of EGIG statistics, and obtains the total failure probability applicable to a particular pipe segment. (2) the steam cloud explosion model was selected according to the most serious accident consequence, and the death number was estimated as the criterion of consequence grade evaluation according to the death rate of 50% leakage. 3According to the failure probability and consequence, the risk grade is evaluated by risk matrix. Finally, the risk acceptability criterion is introduced to analyze the personal risk and social risk of pipeline leakage. The result of case analysis shows that the risk of long distance natural gas pipeline is increased after the upgrade of grade 1 in the area of 1: 1. For the section with increased risk after upgrading, we should decide whether to take safety measures according to the principle of risk control.
【作者单位】：西南石油大学石油与天然气工程学院;油气消防四川省重点实验室;中国石油工程建设有限公司西南设计分公司;
【基金】：中国石油东部管道公司科研项目“地区等级升级给长输管道带来的风险和防控措施研究”(编号:JCF-2013-13)
【分类号】：TE88
【正文快照】： 天然气长输管道在设计建设时,通常都会尽量避开人口密度大、施工作业频繁的地区。但伴随地方经济的发展与城市的扩张,天然气管道周围住宅、工厂等人口聚集场所增多,使管道通过的部分地区等级升高,出现了当初设计与目前状况不符的情况[1-2]。地区等级升级增大了对管道安全运行

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