油气罐区安全水平影响因子SD仿真分析

发布时间：2018-02-28 02:43

本文关键词： 油气罐区系统动力学(SD) 仿真分析影响因子安全投入　出处：《中国安全科学学报》2017年06期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：为系统分析油气罐区安全水平各影响因子,求证罐区安全水平与安全投入的相关性,基于系统动力学(SD)的理论和方法,构建罐区安全水平影响因子SD模型。首先从人的安全行为、安全管理和设备3个宏观维度建立因果循环图;然后结合微观因子构建存量流量图,从宏观和微观角度对罐区安全水平影响因子进行定性、定量动态仿真。结果表明:提高油气罐区安全水平需要长期持续的安全投入,在同等时间内,各宏观因子平均增长率从大到小依次是人的安全行为水平、安全管理水平、设备安全水平;微观因子中安全教育培训对罐区安全水平影响最大。加强对罐区安全管理中人的安全行为及安全教育培训的安全投入及日常监管可提高油气罐区安全水平。
[Abstract]:In order to systematically analyze the influence factors of safety level in oil and gas tank area, and to verify the correlation between safety level and safety input, based on the theory and method of system dynamics (SDD), The SD model of the factors affecting the safety level of the tank area was constructed. Firstly, the causality cycle diagram was established from the three macro dimensions of human safety behavior, safety management and equipment, and then the stock flow chart was constructed by combining the micro factors. The qualitative and quantitative dynamic simulation of the factors affecting the safety level of the tank area is carried out from the macro and micro aspects. The results show that the improvement of the safety level of the oil and gas tank area requires long-term and sustained safety investment, and in the same time, The average growth rate of macroscopical factors from big to small is human safety behavior level, safety management level and equipment safety level. Safety education and training have the greatest influence on the safety level of tank area among microcosmic factors, and the safety level of oil and gas tank area can be improved by strengthening safety investment and daily supervision of safety education and training in safety management of tank area.
【作者单位】：东北石油大学机械科学与工程学院;
【基金】：黑龙江省自然科学基金资助(E2016012)
【分类号】：TE88

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