全球天然气格局分析和我国的发展战略

发布时间：2018-03-03 09:01

本文选题：天然气　切入点：消费　出处：《地球学报》2017年01期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：天然气因其丰富的储量和清洁低碳的属性受到世界各国普遍重视。在未来30~50年内,天然气的消费量和比重还会继续上升,预计在2040年前后将成为第一大能源。科学分析天然气全球供需格局和研判其未来变化,是科学制定中国天然气发展战略的前提和基础。全球天然气的生产和消费严重分离,形成了基本的天然气供需格局。但新世纪以来,天然气领域全球出现了许多重大而影响深远的变化,美国页岩气革命改变了天然气的供应格局,2013年的俄乌争端将改变了天然气的贸易格局,固有的市场体系必不可免地随之改变。中国天然气需求的增速将大大高于产量的增速,天然气供需缺口将不断扩大。本文提出了我国天然气发展的战略思路,对我国天然气需求的供应保障和产业的可持续发展具有重要的理论和实践意义。
[Abstract]:Natural gas, because of its rich reserves and clean and low carbon properties, has received widespread attention in the world. In the next 30 to 50 years, the consumption and proportion of natural gas will continue to rise. It is expected that it will become the largest energy source around 2040. Scientific analysis of the global supply and demand pattern of natural gas and study of its future changes are the prerequisite and basis for scientifically formulating China's natural gas development strategy. The production and consumption of natural gas in the world are seriously separated. A basic pattern of supply and demand for natural gas has been formed. However, since the new century, there have been many major and far-reaching changes in the field of natural gas. The shale gas revolution in the United States has changed the supply pattern of natural gas, and the Russian-Ukrainian dispute of 2013 will change the pattern of natural gas trade, and the inherent market system will inevitably change. The gap between supply and demand of natural gas will continue to expand. This paper puts forward the strategic thinking of the development of natural gas in China, which has important theoretical and practical significance for the supply guarantee of natural gas demand and the sustainable development of industry in China.
【作者单位】：江西科技师范大学;中国地质科学院全球矿产资源战略研究中心;
【基金】：中国地质调查局地质调查项目“境外油气(常规加非常规)资源配置及信息跟踪”(编号:12120113091800)资助~~
【分类号】：F416.22

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