基于效用函数天然气管道可靠性研究

发布时间：2018-03-03 11:31

本文选题：天然气管道　切入点：可靠性　出处：《西安建筑科技大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：陆上天然气输送埋地管道由于腐蚀导致的失效必然会给国家和人民造成相应的经济财产损失。虽然管道公司最为关心的是管道安全可靠性的运行,但由于经济实力和人员投入的局限,不可能也没有必要盲目提高腐蚀管段的安全可靠度或者对存在缺陷的在役管道提前进行维修和更换。为了保证天然气腐蚀管道能够经济安全可靠地运行,本文基于效用函数理论对腐蚀管道的安全可靠性进行研究,论文的主要研究内容概括如下:首先,通过对天然气管道事故及原因进行分析,引出对腐蚀管道的可靠性研究。文中研究了腐蚀天然气管道的剩余强度和剩余寿命,采用ASME B31G修正准则获得腐蚀管道的剩余强度,基于该剩余强度采用灰色马尔可夫理论对腐蚀管道剩余寿命进行预测。为了能保证腐蚀管道可靠运行的经济性,本文引入效用函数理论来研究腐蚀管道如何经济可靠的运行。然后,为取得效用函数理论研究所需的缺陷管道失效时的外部损失值,建立了腐蚀管段失效概率模型,对缺陷管道进行风险评估分析,依据建立的失效危害模型,对管道失效后所引起的经济损失、生命损失和环境损害三方面进行定量计算分析,并依据风险值、损失量和相应概率三者之间的关系进行定量评估以得到管道失效时的外部损失值。其次,基于获得的天然气管道剩余寿命预测值,运用效用函数理论以牺牲腐蚀管道的剩余寿命为前提,确定管道公司提前更换有剩余寿命的管段所带给公司的内部经济损失值,对比分析外部损失值和内部经济损失,确定出更换腐蚀管段的最佳时机。最后,通过实例分析,验证了所提出方法的有效性。
[Abstract]:Failure caused by corrosion of buried pipelines on land will inevitably cause corresponding economic and property losses to the country and people. Although pipeline companies are most concerned about the safe and reliable operation of pipelines, However, due to the limitations of economic strength and personnel input, It is not possible or necessary to blindly improve the safety reliability of corroded pipes or to repair and replace defective pipelines in advance. In order to ensure the safe and reliable operation of natural gas corroded pipelines, This paper studies the safety and reliability of corroded pipeline based on utility function theory. The main contents of this paper are summarized as follows: firstly, through the analysis of accidents and causes of natural gas pipeline, The residual strength and residual life of corroded natural gas pipeline are studied in this paper. The residual strength of corroded pipeline is obtained by using ASME B31G correction criterion. Based on the residual strength, grey Markov theory is used to predict the residual life of corroded pipeline. In this paper, the utility function theory is introduced to study how to operate corrosion pipeline economically and reliably. Then, in order to obtain the external loss value of defective pipeline, a failure probability model is established. According to the established failure hazard model, the economic loss, the loss of life and the environmental damage caused by the failure of the pipeline are calculated and analyzed quantitatively according to the risk value. The relationship between the loss amount and the corresponding probability is evaluated quantitatively to obtain the external loss value of pipeline failure. Secondly, based on the obtained residual life prediction value of natural gas pipeline, On the premise of sacrificing the remaining life of corroded pipeline, the utility function theory is used to determine the internal economic loss value brought to the company by the pipeline company replacing the pipe section with residual life ahead of time, and to compare and analyze the external loss value and the internal economic loss value. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by an example.
【学位授予单位】：西安建筑科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：TE988.2

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