改造瑞利模型在沁水煤层气产量预测中的应用

发布时间：2018-03-12 22:40

本文选题：沁水盆地　切入点：煤层气　出处：《特种油气藏》2017年02期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：针对瑞利模型在沁水煤层气产量预测过程中产量时间比的自然对数与时间平方值之间线性关系较差的问题,利用时间的幂指数替换时间平方值,得到改造瑞利模型,并对该模型在沁水煤层气产量预测中的应用进行了分析。研究结果表明:应用改造瑞利模型能够较好地拟合出沁水煤层气产量的整体特征,尤其在产量递减阶段拟合精度更高。预测沁水地区煤层气井未来1 a的产量,年递减率为21.3%~27.5%,平均为23.8%,符合沁水地区煤层气井产量初期递减规律。统计表明,沁水地区应用改造模型的幂指数m分布于0.15~0.45区间内,平均约为0.25,该值可作为沁水煤层气产量预测模型参数m的参考值。研究成果对沁水盆地煤层气产量预测有一定的指导意义。
[Abstract]:Aiming at the problem that the linear relationship between the natural logarithm of the production time ratio and the time square value is poor in the prediction process of Qinshui coalbed methane production by Rayleigh model, the modified Rayleigh model is obtained by replacing the time square value with the power exponent of time. The application of the model to the prediction of Qinshui coalbed methane production is analyzed. The results show that the modified Rayleigh model can fit the overall characteristics of Qinshui coalbed methane production well. Especially in the stage of production decline, the fitting accuracy is higher. The annual decline rate of the coalbed gas wells in Qinshui area in the next 1 year is 21.30.27.5, with an average of 23.80.This accords with the law of initial decline of coalbed gas wells in Qinshui area. The power exponent m of the modified model in Qinshui area is distributed in the range of 0.15 ~ 0.45 with an average value of 0.25, which can be used as the reference value of the model parameter m for predicting the production of Qinshui coalbed methane. The research results have certain guiding significance for the prediction of coal-bed methane production in Qinshui Basin.
【作者单位】：陕西延长石油(集团)有限责任公司;
【基金】：陕西省科技统筹创新工程项目“延长石油陆相页岩气成藏机理及资源潜力评价”(2012KTZB03-03-01-01)
【分类号】：TE328

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