油气管道顶管穿越河流风险评价技术研究

发布时间：2018-03-17 14:15

本文选题：油气管道　切入点：顶管施工　出处：《西南石油大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近年来,伴随着人们对石油与天然气需求量的增加,油气管道的建设也在逐年增加。油气长输管线的建设距离较长,途经地形复杂多变,不可避免的要通过铁路、公路、河流等障碍物,而穿越和跨越施工可解决这一难题。顶管施工作为一种地下穿越施工方法,由于其施工精度高,使用土质广,使用管径范围大,综合成本低,环境污染小,能穿越江河、公路、铁路、机场跑道、建筑物或障碍物等优点而被广泛应用于油气管道穿越施工中。但顶管施工是地下隐蔽性工程,地下障碍状况比较复杂,影响安全施工的因素比地上施工要多,发生安全事故的可能性比地上施工要高,因此,研究出一套适用于油气管道顶管穿越河流施工风险评价技术是本文的宗旨。为了贴近客观实际地评价油气管道顶管穿越河流施工风险,本文提出了基于组合赋权属性识别模型的风险评价方法。根据油气管道顶管施工阶段的特点,将顶管施工划分为8个阶段进行风险评价,以达到边施工边进行风险评价的目的。首先采用故障树辨识技术对8个施工阶段进行风险因素辨识,并建立故障树,从而辨识出了各施工阶段主控风险因素,并建立了各施工阶段失效可能性指标体系；其次建立属性空间矩阵并进行有序分割,其中为克服单一赋权法的缺点,采用客观赋权的熵权法和主观赋权的G1法并建立组合赋权模型确定评价指标权重和属性测度,利用置信度准则对各施工阶段类别进行识别,得到各施工阶段失效可能性等级,根据人员伤亡、施工工期、施工成本三项指标定性地评价各施工阶段失效后果。最终,依据失效可能性等级和失效后果等级建立风险矩阵,得到各施工阶段风险等级。同时,为了降低顶管施工各施工阶段风险,本文对顶管施工风险控制方法进行了初步研究。首先针对整个顶管施工提出了风险控制的方法,然后针对顶管施工中存在中等风险和高风险的阶段从具体风险因素入手提出了风险缓解措施建议,从而使顶管施工阶段满足风险可接受准则,确保施工的安全进行。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the increasing demand for oil and gas, the construction of oil and gas pipelines is increasing year by year. As a kind of underground crossing construction method, pipe jacking construction can solve this problem because of its high construction precision, wide use of soil, wide range of pipe diameter, low comprehensive cost and low environmental pollution. Being able to cross rivers, highways, railways, airports, runways, buildings or obstacles, it is widely used in oil and gas pipeline crossing construction. There are more factors affecting safety construction than above ground construction, and the possibility of occurrence of safety accident is higher than that of above ground construction. Therefore, it is the purpose of this paper to develop a set of risk assessment technology suitable for pipeline jacking across rivers. In order to evaluate the construction risk of pipeline jacking through river, a risk evaluation method based on combined weight attribute identification model is proposed in this paper, according to the characteristics of pipeline jacking construction stage. The pipe jacking construction is divided into 8 stages for risk evaluation, so as to achieve the purpose of risk evaluation while construction. Firstly, the fault tree identification technique is used to identify the risk factors in the eight construction stages, and the fault tree is established. In order to overcome the shortcoming of single weighting method, the main control risk factors of each construction stage are identified, and the failure possibility index system of each construction stage is established. Secondly, the attribute space matrix is established and sequentially divided, in order to overcome the shortcomings of the single weighting method, the main risk factors are identified. The entropy weight method of objective weight and G1 method of subjective weight are adopted, and the combined weight model is established to determine the evaluation index weight and attribute measure, and the confidence degree criterion is used to identify the categories of each construction stage, and the failure probability level of each construction stage is obtained. According to the three indexes of casualties, construction duration and construction cost, the failure consequences of each construction stage are evaluated qualitatively. Finally, the risk matrix is established according to the failure possibility level and the failure consequence grade, and the risk grade of each construction stage is obtained. At the same time, in order to reduce the risk in each stage of pipe jacking construction, the risk control method of pipe jacking construction is studied in this paper. Firstly, the risk control method is put forward for the whole pipe jacking construction. Then, aiming at the stage of middle risk and high risk in pipe jacking construction, the risk mitigation measures are put forward from the concrete risk factors, so as to make the pipe jacking stage meet the acceptable risk criterion and ensure the safety of construction.
【学位授予单位】：西南石油大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：TE973.4

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