埋地原油长输管道定量风险评价技术研究

发布时间：2018-03-26 03:43

本文选题：埋地原油长输管道　切入点：定量风险分析　出处：《西南石油大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：石油管道作为国家经济和能源的大动脉,对国家的发展起着举足轻重的作用。但是,原油具有易燃、易爆和毒性等特点,一旦发生泄漏事故,容易导致火灾爆炸等恶性事故。对原油管道进行正确合理的风险评价,能够大大提高对事故隐患的预测能力,对制定合理的维护方案提供科学依据,解决日益突出的管道安全运营问题,最大限度的降低管道运行的风险,减少泄漏事故所导致的经济损失、人员伤亡和环境污染。因此,研究埋地原油长输管道的定量风险评价技术有十分重大的意义。本文从我国埋地原油长输管道的特点出发,在国内外学者相关研究的基础上,建立一套适应我国的管道定量风险评价方法。本文主要研究内容如下： (1)根据CONCAWE对输油管道事故的统计,分析国外导致泄漏事故的原因,其中一般腐蚀问题是导致热输管道事故的主要原因,约占81%,第三方行为是导致冷输管道事故的主要原因,约42%；大部分泄漏都是由于第三方行为和腐蚀引起,分别占事故总数的44.9%和27.7%,其次是机械故障和误操作。通过对国内外事故的研究,考虑以第三方风险、腐蚀风险、设计风险和操作风险作为原油长输管道的主要风险因素。 (2)以国外的泄漏率为基础,研究适应我国管道的泄漏率。根据肯特法评分的细则,对现役管道所划分的管段风险进行评分,运用云模型的规则发生器与逆向云发生器对这种定性语言到定量转换的实现,确保评分过程中的模糊性和随机性。采用熵值法确定我国埋地原油管道中各风险因素的权重值,得到各评价管段的总评分,依据总的评分采用修正模型得到评价管段的泄漏频率。 (3)埋地热油管道在输送过程中存在压能和热能损失,且两者相互影响。建立管道的温降和压降模型,确定埋地热油管道的运行参数随里程的变化情况,从而确定原油泄漏点的泄漏速率。采用池火灾模型对事故后果进行模拟,以热辐射伤害准则确定原油发生泄漏后的后续事故影响范围。 (4)建立埋地原油管道风险的计算模型,包括管道泄漏风险频率分析和管道后果分析两部分。针对个人风险,采用定点风险分析的方法,对选取的管段计算个人风险分布。对个人风险和社会风险可接受水平进行了研究,提出个人风险和社会风险的计算模型,解决风险可接受水平定量计算的难题。
[Abstract]:As the artery of national economy and energy, oil pipeline plays an important role in the development of the country. However, crude oil has the characteristics of flammability, explosive and toxicity. It is easy to cause malignant accidents such as fire and explosion. The correct and reasonable risk assessment of crude oil pipeline can greatly improve the ability to predict the hidden dangers of accidents and provide scientific basis for formulating reasonable maintenance plans. Solve the increasingly prominent pipeline safety operation problems, minimize the risk of pipeline operation, reduce the economic losses, casualties and environmental pollution caused by leakage accidents. It is of great significance to study the quantitative risk assessment technology of buried crude oil pipeline. Based on the characteristics of buried long distance crude oil pipeline in China and on the basis of relevant research by scholars at home and abroad, a set of quantitative risk assessment methods for pipeline in China are established in this paper. The main contents of this paper are as follows:. According to the statistics of oil pipeline accidents by CONCAWE, this paper analyzes the causes of leakage accidents in foreign countries, among which the general corrosion problem is the main cause, accounting for about 81%, and the behavior of third parties is the main cause of cold pipeline accidents. Most of the leaks were caused by the behavior and corrosion of third parties, which accounted for 44.9% and 27.7% of the total number of accidents respectively, followed by mechanical failures and misoperation. Through the study of accidents at home and abroad, the risks of third party and corrosion were considered. Design risk and operational risk are the main risk factors of long distance crude oil pipeline. Based on the leakage rate of foreign countries, the leakage rate of pipeline adapted to our country is studied. According to the rules of Kent method, the risk of pipeline division in active service pipeline is graded. In order to ensure the fuzziness and randomness in the scoring process, the rule generator of cloud model and the reverse cloud generator are used to realize the conversion from qualitative language to quantitative analysis. The entropy method is used to determine the weight of each risk factor in the buried crude oil pipeline in China. The total score of each evaluation section was obtained, and the leakage frequency of the evaluated pipe segment was obtained by using the modified model according to the total score. 3) there are pressure energy and heat energy loss in the transportation process of buried geothermal oil pipeline, and they affect each other. The temperature drop and pressure drop model of buried geothermal oil pipeline are established, and the operating parameters of buried geothermal oil pipeline are determined with the variation of mileage. In order to determine the leakage rate of oil leakage point, the accident consequence is simulated by pool fire model, and the influence range of subsequent accident after oil leakage is determined by thermal radiation damage criterion. 4) establishing the calculation model of buried crude oil pipeline risk, including pipeline leakage risk frequency analysis and pipeline consequence analysis. Aiming at personal risk, the method of fixed-point risk analysis is adopted. This paper studies the acceptable level of individual risk and social risk, puts forward the calculation model of personal risk and social risk, and solves the problem of quantitative calculation of acceptable level of risk.
【学位授予单位】：西南石油大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：TE88

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