中美两国石油供应风险对比研究及启示

发布时间：2018-04-26 13:14

本文选题：石油供应 + 供应风险　；参考：《中国矿业》2017年12期

【摘要】：中美两国位列全球前两大石油消费国,近年来美国得益于页岩气革命,石油的自给率不断增加,而中国的石油自给率不断下降,对外依存度不断攀升,因此对比分析中美两国的石油供应风险,有助于中国识别石油供应风险点。基于亚太能源研究中心提出的能源安全"4A模型",构建了石油的供应风险评价模型。评价结果显示,2000年以来,中国的石油供应风险总体高于美国。中国的石油供应风险在2000~2002年短暂下降后开始上升,一直保持在较高水平。美国的石油供应风险在2008年之后开始大幅下降。中国的石油供应风险主要集中在可利用性和可获得性方面,而美国的石油供应风险则集中在可利用性和可接受性方面。
[Abstract]:China and the United States are among the two largest oil consumers in the world. In recent years, the United States has benefited from the shale gas revolution, and the self-sufficiency rate of oil has been increasing, while China's oil self-sufficiency rate has been declining and its dependence on foreign countries has been rising. Therefore, a comparative analysis of oil supply risks between China and the United States will help China identify oil supply risk points. Based on the 4A model of energy security proposed by Asia-Pacific Energy Research Center, the oil supply risk assessment model is constructed. The results show that since 2000, China's oil supply risk is generally higher than that of the United States. China's oil supply risk began to rise after a brief decline from 2000 to 2002 and remained at a high level. Oil supply risks in the United States began to plummet after 2008. The risk of oil supply in China is mainly focused on availability and availability, while in the United States, the risk of oil supply is concentrated on availability and acceptability.
【作者单位】：中国地质调查局发展研究中心;中国地质大学(北京);中国地质科学院国家地质实验测试中心;
【基金】：中国地质调查局项目资助(编号:DD20160087)
【分类号】：F426.22;F471.2

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