永城矿区煤层气主控因素分析及含气量预测研究

发布时间：2018-04-26 13:24

本文选题：煤层气 + 含气量　；参考：《煤炭科学技术》2017年05期

【摘要】：为了定量研究煤层含气量,以永城矿区马桥北马庄详查区二2煤层为研究对象,利用灰色关联分析法,对该区煤层气的控气因素进行了定量分析,优选出了4个影响煤层含气量的因素作为指标体系,基于灰色多变量静态模型GM(1,4)建立了符合该矿区煤层气含量预测模型,并经多元线性回归分析结果进行了对比。结果表明:预测值与实际值的绝对误差为-1.06~1.62 m L/g,同时利用构建的数学模型对区内另外3个钻孔的煤层含气量进行了预测,绝对误差为-1.29~0.97 m L/g,其误差较小,且明显优于多元线性回归模型,一定程度上反映了预测模型的准确性,为该区深部以及未知区域的煤层气含气量预测奠定了基础。
[Abstract]:In order to quantitatively study the gas content of coal seam, taking the No. 2 coal seam of Maqiao Beimazhuang detailed investigation area in Yongcheng mining area as the research object, the factors of controlling gas of coalbed methane in this area are quantitatively analyzed by using grey relational analysis method. Four factors affecting coal seam gas content were selected as index system. Based on the grey multivariable static model GMZ1Q4), the prediction model of coalbed methane content in this mining area was established, and the results were compared with the results of multiple linear regression analysis. The results show that the absolute error between the predicted value and the actual value is -1.06mL / g. At the same time, the gas content of the other three boreholes in the region is predicted by using the mathematical model. The absolute error is -1.290.97mL / g, and the error is small. And it is obviously superior to the multivariate linear regression model, which to some extent reflects the accuracy of the prediction model, and lays a foundation for the prediction of the gas content of the coal bed methane in the deep and unknown areas of this area.
【作者单位】：河南省地质矿产勘查开发局第四地质矿产调查院;
【基金】：河南省国土资源厅“两权价款”地质科研攻关项目(2011-622-10)
【分类号】：P618.13

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