陆上油气管道急剧危害定量风险评价研究

发布时间：2018-05-03 00:19

本文选题：陆上油气管道 + 定量风险评价　；参考：《西安建筑科技大学》2016年硕士论文

【摘要】：目前,我国大量在役陆上油气管线已进入老龄期。随着使用时间的延长和环境、介质的影响,管线缺陷不断恶化,失效概率逐年上升,严重影响管线的安全运行。加之输送介质具有易燃、易爆和易扩散性,管线失效会对人身安全、环境造成重大威胁,给国民经济造成巨大损失。因此,对陆上油气管线进行风险评价具有十分重要的意义。本文利用贝叶斯网络分析与故障树分析在构造方法和推理机制的先天相似性,基于结点与事件的映射关系、联接强度与逻辑门的映射关系在故障树基础上建立贝叶斯网络分析模型,通过输入与实际工程相对应的CPT值,解决了传统概率分析方法无法描述的事件多态性及逻辑非确定性,使失效概率计算更加贴合实际,并借助Hugin Lite软件实现复杂贝叶斯网络的概率分析及敏感度分析。在管道失效后果分析中,介绍了油气泄漏的泄漏速率及泄漏后扩散模型,分别针对油气管道泄漏池火火灾、喷射火、蒸气云爆炸这三种急剧危害后果建立计算模型,确定了火灾热辐射和蒸汽云爆炸冲击波的影响范围,并在此基础上推导致死率的计算。并对每种急剧危害进行实例分析,验证模型的可靠性及实际操作性。基于本文提出的失效概率计算模型和事故后果计算模型的基础上,利用TZS法建立了个人风险及社会风险计算模型,结合我国具体情况和风险确定原则,提出了适合我国国情的油气管道风险可接受标准。综上,本文较系统地研究了陆上油气管线失效概率计算模型,急剧危害后果计算模型,在此基础上提出个人风险及社会风险定量评价方法。由于研究水平有限,另外国内定量风险评价研究起步较晚,未建立完善的数据库,本文数据多参考国内外文献,使得计算结果具有一定真实性但不具有完全意义的普遍指导性。
[Abstract]:At present, a large number of onshore oil and gas pipelines in service in China have entered an aging period. With the prolongation of service time and the influence of medium and environment, pipeline defects are getting worse and the failure probability is increasing year by year, which seriously affects the safe operation of pipeline. In addition, the transportation medium is flammable, explosive and diffusible, the pipeline failure will pose a great threat to personal safety and environment, and cause huge losses to the national economy. Therefore, the risk assessment of onshore oil and gas pipelines is of great significance. In this paper, we use Bayesian network analysis and fault tree analysis to analyze the innate similarity of construction methods and reasoning mechanisms, based on the mapping relationship between nodes and events. The mapping relationship between connection strength and logic gate is based on the fault tree to establish a Bayesian network analysis model. By inputting the CPT value corresponding to the actual project, the event polymorphism and logic uncertainty that can not be described by the traditional probability analysis method are solved. The calculation of failure probability is more practical, and the probability analysis and sensitivity analysis of complex Bayesian network are realized by Hugin Lite software. In the analysis of pipeline failure consequences, the leakage rate of oil and gas leakage and the diffusion model after leakage are introduced. The calculation models are established for the three kinds of sharp damage consequences of oil and gas pipeline leakage pool fire, jet fire and vapor cloud explosion, respectively. The influence range of fire heat radiation and steam cloud explosion shock wave is determined, and the calculation of fatality rate is deduced. An example is given to verify the reliability and practicability of the model. Based on the failure probability calculation model and accident consequence calculation model proposed in this paper, the personal risk and social risk calculation model is established by using TZS method. The acceptable standard of oil and gas pipeline risk suitable for our country is put forward. In summary, this paper systematically studies the calculation model of failure probability of onshore oil and gas pipelines and the calculation model of sharp harm consequence, and puts forward the quantitative evaluation method of personal risk and social risk on the basis of this model. Due to the limited research level and the late start of quantitative risk assessment research in China, there is no perfect database. The data of this paper refer to domestic and foreign literature, which makes the calculation results have certain authenticity but not complete significance of universal guidance.
【学位授予单位】：西安建筑科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：TE88

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