基于灰色系统理论的煤层气发电项目风险研究

发布时间：2018-05-18 10:17

本文选题：煤层气发电 + 项目风险　；参考：《山东科技大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：2013年9月国务院办公厅发布的《国务院办公厅关于进一步加快煤层气(煤矿瓦斯)抽采利用的若干意见》和2016年11月国家能源局发布的《煤层气(煤矿瓦斯)开发利用十三五规划》专项规划将煤层气这种煤矿安全生产主要隐患的清洁能源作为规划重点,鼓励煤层气开采和综合利用一体式发展。大型煤矿集团利用矿井下抽采的煤层气为燃料进行发电,可以减少资源浪费,降低煤矿安全隐患。发展煤层气发电项目具有极大的经济、社会和环境效益,符合国家大力发展循环经济要求。因此,煤层气发电项目的风险研究显得尤为重要。本文首先结合项目全生命周期理论和煤层气发电项目自身特点将煤层气发电项目的全生命周期划分为了概念、设计、施工和运营四个阶段,利用文献研究法识别出四个阶段的风险因素共24个;然后通过调查问卷和SPSS软件对识别出的风险因素进行统计分析,剔除重要性较小的7个风险因素,剩下的17个风险因素作为煤层气发电项目的关键风险因素,由此建立煤层气发电项目的风险评价指标体系;其次,根据建立的风险评价指标体系,应用灰色系统理论建立煤层气发电项目的风险评价模型,利用改进的灰色关联度计算各项指标的权重,确定煤层气发电项目全生命周期各个阶段以及各阶段的具体风险因素对项目整体风险的影响程度,并运用灰色聚类分析确定煤层气发电项目的整体风险水平;根据建立的评价模型对某煤层气发电项目进行实例分析,得出该项目风险评价总目标的灰色评价权向量为(0.0131,0.1007, 0.2971,0.3233, 0.2658),根据最大权原则,灰色评价权向量中的最大值属于第四灰类,所以该项目的整体风险水平为“较高”;最后,依据风险控制、风险自留和风险转移等措施,针对煤层气发电项目全生命周期的关键风险因素提出风险应对策略。通过本文研究,系统地建立了煤层气发电项目的综合评价指标体系;在方法上,利用文献研究和问卷调查相结合对项目风险进行识别,运用灰色系统理论建立风险评价模型并通过实例分析对模型进行验证;针对煤层气发电项目的关键风险因素提出相应的管理对策和建议,完善了煤层气发电项目风险管理的内容。
[Abstract]:In September 2013, the general office of the State Council issued a number of opinions on the further acceleration of coal seam gas (coal mine gas) extraction and utilization by the general office of the State Council and the special plan for the development and utilization of coal bed gas (coal mine gas) in 13th Five-Year by the state Energy Bureau in November 2016. In order to focus on the planning, we should encourage the development of coal seam gas mining and comprehensive utilization. Large coal mining groups make use of coal seam gas extracted from the coal mine as fuel to generate electricity, which can reduce the waste of resources and reduce the hidden danger of coal mine safety. The development of coal-bed gas power generation project has great economic, social and environmental benefits, which conforms to the state's vigorous development of circular economy. Therefore, it is very important to study the risk of coal-bed gas power generation project. Firstly, the whole life cycle of CBM power generation project is divided into four stages of concept, design, construction and operation according to the whole life cycle theory of the project and the characteristics of the coal-bed gas generation project, and the risk of the four stages is identified by the method of literature research. There are 24 factors, and then through statistical analysis of the risk factors identified by the questionnaire and SPSS software, 7 risk factors which are less important are eliminated, and the remaining 17 risk factors are the key risk factors of the coal-bed gas power generation project, thus the risk evaluation index system of coal-bed gas power generation project is established. Secondly, based on the establishment of the risk assessment system of coal bed gas power generation project. The risk evaluation index system is used to establish the risk evaluation model of coal bed gas power generation project with grey system theory, and use the improved grey relational degree to calculate the weight of each index, determine the impact degree of the whole life cycle of the coal bed gas generation project and the specific risk factors of each stage to the overall risk of the project, and use the grey system. The cluster analysis is used to determine the overall risk level of the coal-bed gas power generation project. According to the established evaluation model, a case analysis of a coal-bed gas power generation project is carried out. The grey evaluation right vector of the total target of the project risk assessment is (0.0131,0.1007, 0.2971,0.3233, 0.2658), and the maximum weight of the grey evaluation weight vector is based on the most powerful principle. In the fourth grey category, the overall risk level of the project is "high". Finally, according to the risk control, risk retention and risk transfer, the risk coping strategies are put forward in accordance with the key risk factors of the whole life cycle of coal-bed gas power generation project. Through this study, the comprehensive evaluation index of the coal-bed gas power generation project is set up systematically. In the method, the project risk is identified by the combination of the literature research and the questionnaire survey, the risk evaluation model is established by the grey system theory and the model is verified by the case analysis. The corresponding management countermeasures and suggestions are put forward for the key risk factors of the coal-bed gas power generation project, and the wind power project wind is perfected. The content of risk management.
【学位授予单位】：山东科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F426.22;F426.61

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