伊朗新油气合同模式分析:以南帕斯某大型气田为例

发布时间：2018-05-20 21:01

本文选题：伊朗 + IPC合同　；参考：《中国矿业》2017年S2期

【摘要】：自2015年以来,伊朗政府为解决回购合同模式合作的局限性问题,陆续向外界推出新石油合同作为油气对外合作新模式,一定程度上降低了合同者超工期、超投资、生产操作权等风险,但回购合同监管思维根深蒂固。本文结合新版合同及财税条款,回顾伊朗对外合同历程,梳理新石油合同特征,为国际投资者谈判、执行合同提供决策参考。以南帕斯某大型气田为案例,假定并选取各项参数,运用折现现金流法,计算合同者投资效益,结果显示,合同者投资效益相对乐观、资金风险较低、油价风险降低。新合同模式下,进一步开展不确定性风险分析,建设期、合同期内投资、气产量、油价波动、DCC摊销期、操作费和利率是依次影响合同者效益的关键因素。合同者可通过加快建设工期、节约投资、控制成本获取高额收益,但承担超工期、超投资、费用增加对效益的侵蚀。合同者分享油田生产的长期收益,更有动力选择短期增产以提高自身效益。合同者可从高油价中分享部分超额收益,低油价下亏损的风险相对较低。合同者在投资摊销期和回收上限之间权衡时,更愿意去加快投资回收。
[Abstract]:Since 2015, in order to solve the limitation of cooperation in the repo contract model, the Iranian government has successively introduced new oil contracts to the outside world as a new model for oil and gas cooperation with foreign countries. To a certain extent, the Iranian government has reduced the contractor's time limit and investment. Production operation right and other risks, but repo contract regulatory thinking deep-rooted. This paper reviews the history of Iran's foreign contracts, combs the characteristics of new oil contracts, and provides a reference for international investors to negotiate and execute contracts. A case of a large gas field in South Perth assumes and selects various parameters and calculates the investment benefit of the contractor by using the method of discounted cash flow. The results show that the investment benefit of the contractor is relatively optimistic, the risk of capital is lower and the risk of oil price is lower. Under the new contract model, uncertainty risk analysis, construction period, investment in contract period, gas output, fluctuation of oil price and DCC amortization period, operating cost and interest rate are the key factors that affect the benefit of the contractor in turn. By speeding up the construction period, saving the investment and controlling the cost, the contractor can obtain the high profit, but assume the excess time limit, exceed the investment, and increase the cost to the erosion of the benefit. Contractors share long-term benefits from oil production and are more motivated to increase production in the short term. Contractors can share some of the excess gains from high oil prices, and the risk of losses at low oil prices is relatively low. The contractor is more willing to speed up the return on the trade-off between the amortization period and the return limit.
【作者单位】：中国石油勘探开发研究院;中国石油中东公司;中国石油川庆钻探工程有限公司地质勘探开发研究院;中化石油勘探开发有限公司;
【基金】：国家科技重大专项课题“海外油气投资环境评估与勘探资产评价”资助(编号:2016ZX05029-003)
【分类号】：F114.4;F416.22

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