吴起—延炼输油管道安全风险评价技术研究

发布时间：2018-05-21 20:12

本文选题：输油管道 + 石油安全　；参考：《西安石油大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着我国经济发展对于能源的需求,管道运输行业发展迅猛,形成了大量输油管网和供气系统。受供求关系的影响,油气长输管道的相关基础设备设施仍需大规模建设,为保障管道的安全运行及其维护资源的合理分配,对管段进行风险评价是对风险因素控制最行之有效的方法。若对管段的评价不到位,有可能会导致用于维护管道安全的资源分配不均,严重时会导致失效事故的发生,引起火灾、爆炸和中毒等事件的发生,对人员造成伤亡、破坏生态环境,并给国民经济带来重大损失。本文通过对国内外输油管道安全风险评价技术和相关文献进行归纳,对国外管道失效的历史数据作为调查依据,构建包括管道安全风险因素、失效频率、管道事故后果分析的输油管道安全风险评价模型,同时根据模型结合延长油田输油管道的实际情况,对吴起—延炼输油管道安全风险评价技术进行分析,主要研究工作如下:(1)对我国管道事故进行分析,管道失效主要由于腐蚀、第三方破坏、操作不当和设计的问题引发,并对埋地原油长输管道的主要风险因素,腐蚀风险、第三方风险、操作风险和设计风险进行分析。(2)提出基于基础泄漏率的失效频率计算模型,以肯特评分法为基础,通过云模型的规则发生器和逆向云发生器对风险因素评分进行修正,并采用熵值法来确定我国埋地原油长输管道中的各类风险因素的权重值,根据评分值采用修正系数的方法对失效频率进行修正,确定失效频率的计算模型。(3)针对埋地原油管道在输送过程中存在热损失和压力损失,建立埋地原油管道的温降和压降模型,计算原油管道在泄漏点的物性参数,以确定原油管道在不同条件下的泄漏速率。采用池火灾模型计算在不同泄漏量时,热辐射对管道周围的人和建筑物的影响范围。(4)在吴起—延炼输油管道具体项目运用过程中,对对高风险管段,进行事故后果模拟,确定其事故影响范围,总体来看吴起—延炼输油管道安全风险较小。
[Abstract]:With the development of economy in China, the pipeline transportation industry develops rapidly, forming a large number of pipeline networks and gas supply systems. Under the influence of supply and demand, the related infrastructure of long-distance oil and gas pipeline still needs to be built on a large scale, in order to ensure the safe operation of pipeline and the rational distribution of maintenance resources, Risk assessment is the most effective method to control risk factors. If the evaluation of the pipe section is not in place, it may lead to the uneven distribution of resources used to maintain the safety of the pipeline, the occurrence of failure accidents in serious cases, the occurrence of fire, explosion and poisoning, and the death and injury of the personnel. Destroy ecological environment, and bring great loss to national economy. In this paper, the safety risk assessment technology and related literature of oil pipeline are summarized, and the historical data of pipeline failure are investigated, including pipeline safety risk factors and failure frequency. The safety risk assessment model of oil pipeline based on the consequence analysis of pipeline accident, and the safety risk assessment technology of Wuqi-Yan-Lian oil pipeline are analyzed according to the actual situation of the oil pipeline in Yanchang Oilfield, according to the model and the actual situation of the oil pipeline in Yanchang Oilfield. The main research work is as follows: (1) Analysis of pipeline accidents in China. Pipeline failures are mainly caused by corrosion, third party damage, improper operation and design problems. The main risk factors of buried crude oil pipeline are corrosion risk. Third party risk, operational risk and design risk are analyzed. 2) A failure frequency calculation model based on basic leakage rate is proposed, which is based on Kent score method. Through cloud model rule generator and reverse cloud generator, the risk factor score is modified, and entropy method is used to determine the weight of all kinds of risk factors in buried crude oil pipeline in China. According to the evaluation value, the failure frequency is corrected by the method of correction coefficient, and the calculation model of failure frequency is determined. (3) aiming at the heat loss and pressure loss of buried crude oil pipeline in the course of transportation, The temperature drop and pressure drop models of buried crude oil pipeline were established and the physical parameters of the pipeline at the leak point were calculated to determine the leakage rate of the pipeline under different conditions. Using pool fire model to calculate the influence range of heat radiation on the people and buildings around the pipeline when different leakage amount.) in the application process of Wuqi-Yanling oil pipeline project, the accident consequence of high risk pipeline section is simulated. To determine the scope of impact of the accident, the overall Wuqi-Yanchang pipeline safety risk is relatively small.
【学位授予单位】：西安石油大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：TE88

【参考文献】