加油站补货计划优化模型

发布时间：2018-06-19 22:12

本文选题：加油站 + 预测　；参考：《中国科技论文》2017年17期

【摘要】：针对现有加油站自动补货计划模型无法满足加油站销量存在突增突减、油罐需保持较高的库存运行、需按油罐进行配送等实际业务需求的情况,采用带季节指数的指数平滑模型进行加油站油品销量预测,提升加油站销量预测准确性,采用改进的(t,s,S)补货策略进行加油站油罐库存控制,优化了加油站自动补货计划。结果表明:使用带季节指数的指数平滑模型,通过处理离群值和调节销量预测值进行加油站油品销量预测,使得预测的配送计划既满足了加油站的需要,又保证了加油站库存水平能满足业务要求;同时采用定期库存盘整条件下不定期定量改进的(t,s,S)补货策略进行加油站油罐库存控制,在保证加油站不断油的情况下,得到的补货计划可执行率更高。
[Abstract]:In view of the fact that the existing automatic replenishment plan model of gas station can not meet the sudden increase and decrease of gas station sales volume, the oil tank needs to keep a high inventory operation and needs to distribute according to the actual business demand, such as oil tank, etc. The exponential smoothing model with seasonal index is used to predict the gas station oil sales volume, to improve the accuracy of the gas station sales forecast, to use the improved filling strategy to control the tank inventory, and to optimize the automatic restocking plan of the gas station. The results show that by using the exponential smoothing model with seasonal index, the outliers are processed and the predicted sales volume is adjusted. The predicted distribution plan meets the needs of the gas stations. It also ensures that the stock level of the gas station can meet the operational requirements, and at the same time, the filling strategy is adopted to control the stock of the fuel tank of the gas station under the condition of periodic inventory consolidation, which can be improved periodically and quantitatively, so as to ensure that the gas station keeps on filling. The restocking plan is more likely to be executed.
【作者单位】：中国人民大学商学院;中国石油规划总院;重庆交通大学经济与管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71602015) 重庆市教委科技项目(KJ1600525)
【分类号】：F426.22

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