基于地质分区的煤层含气量预测方法研究

发布时间：2018-09-18 13:38

【摘要】：为准确预测煤层含气量,解决目前常规测井解释方法适用性差、准确率低等问题,提出了基于地质因素差异对含气性影响的分区预测含气量方法。首先结合大量实验室测试数据,分析了沉积、构造、水动力条件差异对煤层含气性的影响,得出主控因素;其次通过模糊层次分析,量化地质因素差异,实现地质分区;最终在各分区内引入主成分分析,充分利用现场大量常规测井曲线,进行多元回归,建立煤层含气量预测模型。以柿庄南地区3号煤层为研究对象进行计算,结果表明,柿庄南地区3号煤层含气性受到各地质因素的综合影响,平面上受顶板泥岩厚度、构造应力类型、矿化度控制,单井纵向上主要受固定碳含量变化影响;进行地质分区后煤层含气量回归预测值与实测值拟合率达89%,而常规回归预测拟合率17%,故准确率有显著的提高。
[Abstract]:In order to accurately predict gas content in coal seam and solve the problems of poor applicability and low accuracy rate of conventional logging interpretation methods, a method for predicting gas content in different zones based on the influence of geological factors on gas content is put forward. Based on a large number of laboratory test data, this paper analyzes the influence of deposition, structure and hydrodynamic conditions on the gas-bearing properties of coal seam, and obtains the main controlling factors, then quantifies the difference of geological factors through fuzzy analytic hierarchy process to realize geological zoning. Finally, principal component analysis (PCA) is introduced into each zone, and the prediction model of gas content in coal seam is established by making full use of a large number of conventional well logging curves in the field and carrying out multivariate regression. Taking No. 3 coal seam in Shizhuangnan area as the research object, the results show that the gas-bearing property of No. 3 coal seam in Shizhuangnan area is comprehensively affected by various geological factors, and is controlled by the thickness of roof mudstone, the type of tectonic stress and the degree of mineralization. The regression prediction rate of gas content in coal seam after geological zoning is 89%, while the fitting rate of conventional regression prediction is 17%, so the accuracy rate has been improved significantly.
【作者单位】：中国矿业大学(北京)地球科学与测绘工程学院;河南理工大学能源科学与工程学院;中原经济区煤层(页岩)气协同创新中心;
【基金】：国家科技重大专项课题(2011ZX05060)
【分类号】：P618.13;P631.81

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