新型预测含水率联解模型的建立与应用

发布时间：2018-10-17 22:23

【摘要】：生产预测模型法和水驱特征曲线法是2种重要的油藏工程分析方法,常用于油田开发指标预测,但二者均存在不同程度的缺陷:生产预测模型法不能预测含水率,水驱特征曲线法不能预测开发指标随时间的变化关系。基于Morgan-Mercer-Flodin(MMF)生长模型特点分析,推导出了胡-陈模型,并简化了参数求解过程,将MMF生长模型与水驱特征曲线相结合,建立了预测油田含水率的联解模型,克服了生产预测模型法和水驱特征曲线法的不足。油田实际开发资料与模型预测结果对比结果表明,联解模型的预测精度较高,可以满足油田生产动态分析的需要,对油田开发方案的制定及调整具有指导意义。
[Abstract]:The production prediction model method and the water drive characteristic curve method are two important reservoir engineering analysis methods, which are often used to predict the oilfield development index, but both of them have some defects in varying degrees: the production prediction model method can not predict the water cut, The characteristic curve method of water drive can not predict the change of development index with time. Based on the characteristic analysis of Morgan-Mercer-Flodin (MMF) growth model, the Hu Chen model is deduced, and the parameter solving process is simplified. Combining the MMF growth model with the characteristic curve of water drive, the combined solution model for predicting oil field water cut is established. It overcomes the shortage of production prediction model method and water drive characteristic curve method. The comparison between the actual development data and the model prediction results shows that the combined solution model has high prediction accuracy and can meet the needs of oilfield production performance analysis. It is of guiding significance for the formulation and adjustment of oilfield development plan.
【作者单位】：中国地质大学能源学院;中国石油勘探开发研究院;
【基金】：国家科技重大专项(2016ZX05015-002) 中国石油天然气股份有限公司科学研究与技术开发项目(RIPED-2016E-1303)
【分类号】：TE357.6

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