基于系统动力学的成品油应急调运策略研究

发布时间：2018-10-26 14:00

【摘要】：成品油应急调运是应对各类灾害应急物资保障的重要内容.本文运用系统动力学理论,研究影响成品油应急调运效率的主要因素。按照运输方式将成品油应急调运划分为管道运输、铁路运输、公路运输和水路运输四种,在此基础上构建了成品油应急调运的系统动力学模型,并以2008年汶川特大地震发生后中国石油集团成品油应急调运活动为例,进行仿真验证。研究发现:在成品油应急调运过程中,石油企业提升保障输油管道安全的能力,可以有效增加管道运输速率;石油企业在政府的统筹协调下,加强与铁路部门、水路部门的沟通协调,可以有效提升铁路运输和水路运输效率;采用以上三个应急调运策略,可以大幅度提升成品油应急调运能力.此外,通过提升公路运输速率,无法显著增强成品油应急调运能力,但是可以作为一个可供选择的策略.
[Abstract]:The emergency transportation of finished oil is an important part of emergency material support for all kinds of disasters. Based on the theory of system dynamics, this paper studies the main factors that affect the efficiency of emergency transportation of refined oil. According to the transportation mode, the product oil emergency transportation is divided into four types: pipeline transportation, railway transportation, road transportation and waterway transportation. On this basis, the system dynamics model of product oil emergency transportation is constructed. After the Wenchuan earthquake occurred in 2008, the simulation was carried out to verify the emergency transportation of finished oil products of China National Petroleum Group. It is found that in the process of emergency transportation of refined oil, oil enterprises can enhance the ability to ensure the safety of oil pipelines, which can effectively increase the transportation rate of pipelines; Under the overall coordination of the government, the petroleum enterprises can enhance the efficiency of railway transportation and waterway transportation effectively by strengthening the communication and coordination with the railway and waterway departments. By adopting the above three emergency dispatching strategies, the capacity of product oil emergency transportation can be greatly improved. In addition, it can not significantly enhance the capacity of oil product emergency transportation, but it can be used as an alternative strategy by increasing the speed of road transportation.
【作者单位】：北京理工大学管理与经济学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金面上项目(71473015)~~
【分类号】：F426.22

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