玉溪天然气管道基线风险评价技术研究

发布时间：2018-12-09 18:16

【摘要】：随着经济地高速发展,城市使用天然气将会越来越普遍。由于城市人口密度大、经济发展水平高,城市天然气管道输送的介质又有着易燃、易爆、有毒等特性,其一旦发生事故往往会给城市居民的生命和财产带来巨大的损失,给社会造成深远的不良影响。因此,开展城市天然气管道的风险评价,保障其安全运行具有十分重要的意义本文针对玉溪天然气管道进行风险分析及评价。主要的研究内容如下：(1)简要介绍了玉溪天然气管道的工程背景、运行状况,然后重点介绍了管道走向及各站场位置分布,最后着重从地理环境、气象条件,水文特征、地形地貌、区块地质构造等方面分析了管道沿线自然环境状况及从社会发展、经济发展方面分析管道沿线社会状况。为随后的风险评价提供了数据支持。(2)运用风险评价基本原理,采用事故树分析法建立了玉溪天然气管道失效事故树。通过对事故树结构重要度的分析,得出导致玉溪天然气管道失效的主要原因是第三方破坏、腐蚀、设计和误操作的结论。(3)讨论了玉溪天然气管道评价指标选取的原则,借鉴指数法的风险评价指标体系,在事故树分析的基础上确定了玉溪天然气管道基线风险评价指标体系各级因素。对影响玉溪天然气管道失效的因素和失效的后果因素,按照指数评价的方法分别进行了评分。(4)由于在管道风险评价中,许多因素存在着模糊不确定性。为了能准确地描述这些模糊不确定性因素,引入了模糊数学的思想和方法,采用模糊综合评价法对玉溪天然气管道进行风险评价。(5)应用所建立的输气管道基线风险评价模型,对新建成的玉溪天然气管道线路部分进行基线风险评价,揭示该管线各个区段的风险概貌,并结合玉溪天然气管道的工程实际,制定相应的风险控制措施和管道维护方案。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of economy, the use of natural gas in cities will become more and more common. Because of the high density of urban population and the high level of economic development, the medium transported by urban natural gas pipeline has the characteristics of flammable, explosive, toxic and so on. Once an accident occurs, it will often bring huge losses to the lives and property of urban residents. It has a profound negative impact on society. Therefore, it is very important to carry out risk assessment of urban natural gas pipeline and ensure its safe operation. This paper analyzes and evaluates the risk of Yuxi natural gas pipeline. The main research contents are as follows: (1) the engineering background and operation status of Yuxi natural gas pipeline are briefly introduced, then the pipeline direction and location distribution of each station are emphatically introduced, and finally, the geographical environment, meteorological conditions and hydrological characteristics are emphasized. The natural environment along the pipeline and the social conditions along the pipeline are analyzed in terms of social development and economic development from the aspects of topography and geomorphology, geological structure of the block and so on. It provides data support for the subsequent risk assessment. (2) the failure accident tree of Yuxi natural gas pipeline is established by using the basic principle of risk assessment and accident tree analysis. Based on the analysis of the importance of accident tree structure, it is concluded that the main causes of failure of Yuxi natural gas pipeline are third party destruction, corrosion, design and misoperation. (3) the selection principle of evaluation index for Yuxi natural gas pipeline is discussed. Based on the analysis of accident tree, the risk evaluation index system of Yuxi natural gas pipeline at all levels is determined by using the index system of risk assessment of index method. The factors affecting the failure of Yuxi natural gas pipeline and the consequence factors of failure are graded according to the method of exponential evaluation. (4) many factors have fuzzy uncertainty in pipeline risk assessment. In order to describe these fuzzy uncertainty factors accurately, the idea and method of fuzzy mathematics are introduced. The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to evaluate the risk of Yuxi natural gas pipeline. (5) applying the established baseline risk assessment model, the baseline risk assessment of the newly completed Yuxi natural gas pipeline is carried out. The risk profile of each section of the pipeline is revealed, and the corresponding risk control measures and pipeline maintenance plan are worked out in combination with the engineering practice of Yuxi natural gas pipeline.
【学位授予单位】：西南石油大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TE88

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