基于可靠性的小口径天然气管道设计方案优选
发布时间：2018-12-13 23:04
【摘要】：基于可靠性的设计方法针对管道实际失效形式,对不同极限状态的荷载和抗力等不确定因素进行定量分析,确保管道安全可靠。全生命周期费用的比选可权衡管道耗材、施工、运行维护及失效后果,在保证安全的前提下,实现管道经济性最优。针对管径273 mm的某天然气管道,首次采用基于可靠性的设计方法进行钢管壁厚设计。利用调研得到的管道材料、施工及运维等不确定参数,计算目标可靠度下的临界壁厚;根据规格壁厚的规定,分别对5.2 mm、5.6 mm、6.4 mm及7.1 mm壁厚方案的全生命周期费用进行定量计算分析。结果显示:5.2 mm方案的建设期和运营期费用最低,但失效概率大导致其潜在损失费用明显高于其他方案;6.4 mm方案的全生命周期费用最低,30年总费用比5.2 mm方案低0.51%。基于管道安全可靠性和经济适用性的综合考虑,推荐采用壁厚6.4 mm方案。
[Abstract]:In order to ensure the safety and reliability of pipelines, the reliability based design method is used to quantitatively analyze the uncertain factors such as load and resistance in different limit states. The cost comparison of the whole life cycle can balance the pipeline consumables, construction, operation and maintenance and failure consequences, and realize the economic optimization of pipeline under the premise of ensuring safety. For a natural gas pipeline with a diameter of 273 mm, the design method based on reliability is used for the design of steel pipe wall thickness for the first time. The critical wall thickness under the reliability of the target is calculated by using the uncertain parameters of pipeline material, construction and operation and maintenance. According to the specification of wall thickness, the whole life cycle cost of 5.2 mm,5.6 mm,6.4 mm and 7.1 mm wall thickness schemes were calculated and analyzed respectively. The results show that the cost of 5.2 mm scheme is the lowest in the construction and operation periods, but the potential loss cost of 5.2 mm scheme is higher than that of other schemes due to the large failure probability. 6.4 the whole life cycle cost of mm scheme was the lowest, and the total cost of 30 years was 0.51% lower than that of 5.2 mm scheme. Based on the comprehensive consideration of pipeline safety, reliability and economic applicability, a 6. 4 mm scheme with wall thickness is recommended.
【作者单位】： 中国石油管道局工程有限公司设计分公司;
【基金】：中国石油天然气股份有限公司科学研究与技术开发项目“第三代大输量天然气管道工程关键技术研究”,2012E-2801-01
【分类号】：TE973.1
本文编号：2377411
[Abstract]:In order to ensure the safety and reliability of pipelines, the reliability based design method is used to quantitatively analyze the uncertain factors such as load and resistance in different limit states. The cost comparison of the whole life cycle can balance the pipeline consumables, construction, operation and maintenance and failure consequences, and realize the economic optimization of pipeline under the premise of ensuring safety. For a natural gas pipeline with a diameter of 273 mm, the design method based on reliability is used for the design of steel pipe wall thickness for the first time. The critical wall thickness under the reliability of the target is calculated by using the uncertain parameters of pipeline material, construction and operation and maintenance. According to the specification of wall thickness, the whole life cycle cost of 5.2 mm,5.6 mm,6.4 mm and 7.1 mm wall thickness schemes were calculated and analyzed respectively. The results show that the cost of 5.2 mm scheme is the lowest in the construction and operation periods, but the potential loss cost of 5.2 mm scheme is higher than that of other schemes due to the large failure probability. 6.4 the whole life cycle cost of mm scheme was the lowest, and the total cost of 30 years was 0.51% lower than that of 5.2 mm scheme. Based on the comprehensive consideration of pipeline safety, reliability and economic applicability, a 6. 4 mm scheme with wall thickness is recommended.
【作者单位】： 中国石油管道局工程有限公司设计分公司;
【基金】：中国石油天然气股份有限公司科学研究与技术开发项目“第三代大输量天然气管道工程关键技术研究”,2012E-2801-01
【分类号】：TE973.1
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1 张立松;闫相祯;田中兰;杨恒林;杨秀娟;;基于可靠性方法的储层钻井坍塌压力分析[J];石油学报;2012年03期
，本文编号：2377411
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