基于知识驱动的天然气管线评估模型的设计与实现

发布时间：2019-02-26 09:01

【摘要】：本文通过设计基于知识驱动的天然气管线评估模型来实现对天然气管线的完整性评估,根据评估结果对存在高风险的管线进行预警并给出预防措施。针对天然气管线的完整性评估,国内常采用管线的风险评估来替代并且使用传统的Kent评估法进行风险评估,或者在进行管线完整性评估时仅仅是分别进行了管线的风险评估与高后果区评估,没有将两者相结合。针对上述问题本文采用基于知识驱动的天然气管线完整性评估模型对天然气管线进行完整性评估,在管线的风险评估中通过对历年来天然气管线失效事故因素的观察,抽象出基于Poicare模型与熵权法的Kent评估模型,将传统Kent打分法中的第三方风险因素、腐蚀因素、误操作因素以及设计因素分类为主观因素与客观因素,针对主观因素与客观因素分别采用熵权法计算权重,对处理后的主观因素与客观因素通过Poicare模型进行处理,将处理后的结果进行管线的风险评估,依据《输气管线工程设计规范》与《管线高后果区识别规程》对天然气管线进行高后果区评估,最终依据天然气管线的风险评估结果和高后果区评估结果进行管线的完整性评估。本文通过建立天然气管线完整性数据管理模型保证了评估数据的可靠性,通过采用基于知识驱动的天然气管线完整性评估,使得管线评估更加科学合理并且可以较为精确的接近评估真值。
[Abstract]:In this paper, a knowledge-driven evaluation model for natural gas pipeline is designed to evaluate the integrity of natural gas pipeline. According to the evaluation results, the pipeline with high risk is early-warning and preventive measures are given. In view of the integrity assessment of natural gas pipeline, pipeline risk assessment is often used in China and the traditional Kent assessment method is used to carry out the risk assessment. Or when the pipeline integrity assessment is carried out, the pipeline risk assessment and high consequence zone assessment are respectively carried out, and the two are not combined. In view of the above problems, the integrity assessment model of natural gas pipeline based on knowledge-driven is used to evaluate the integrity of natural gas pipeline. In the risk assessment of pipeline, the failure accident factors of natural gas pipeline over the years are observed. The Kent evaluation model based on Poicare model and entropy method is abstracted. The third party risk factor, corrosion factor, misoperation factor and design factor in traditional Kent scoring method are classified into subjective factor and objective factor. According to the subjective factor and the objective factor, the weight is calculated by entropy method, and the subjective factor and the objective factor are processed by Poicare model, and the result of the treatment is evaluated for pipeline risk. According to the Code of Design for Gas Pipeline Engineering and the Code for identifying High consequence zones of Pipelines, the evaluation of high consequence zones for natural gas pipelines is carried out, Finally, the integrity of the pipeline is evaluated according to the risk assessment results of natural gas pipeline and the evaluation results of high consequence zone. In this paper, the reliability of the evaluation data is ensured by establishing the integrity data management model of natural gas pipeline, and the integrity assessment of natural gas pipeline based on knowledge-driven is adopted. It makes the pipeline evaluation more scientific and reasonable and can be more accurate close to the evaluation true value.
【学位授予单位】：东北石油大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：TE973.1

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