蒙特卡洛方法在储量计算和经济评价中的应用

发布时间：2019-03-09 14:43

【摘要】：油气田从勘探到开发的整个过程都存在很多不确定性风险因素。储层地质特征、油藏特征、流体性质以及生产特征、开发方案的选择、钻井方式的选择、经济及政治因素等的不确定性始终制约着人们对油气田开发的认识。在对一个油田进行开发规划时,首先需要对整个油气田有整体认识,弄清油气田的储量规模是为后续设计开发方案,指导油气田开发工作、经济评价及投资规模的重要依据。因此传统的储量计算方法如容积法等计算的单一储量值便不足以描述地下油气藏的不确定性,但是容积法却是计算油气储量的一种最实用的方法,它对生产数据要求不高,只需用油气藏静态数据便可得到储量数值,而且它也是蒙特卡洛方法估算储量的重要基础。在大量文献调研的基础上总结了蒙特卡洛方法在项目投资、能源工程、水力水电、气象预测,矿业项目投资、资源量评估等多方面的运用。特别是近年来蒙特卡洛方法在石油领域得到了越来越多的应用,如剩余油分布,钻井时间的估算,测井解释,储量的分类以及经济极限产量的计算等领域都有着广泛的应用。其中基于容积法的蒙特卡洛储量估算有着大量的应用实例。本文对蒙特卡洛模拟在地质储量估算和经济评价中的应用作了研究,对使用蒙特卡洛法计算储量的水晶球软件作出了详细介绍,并通过应用实例对储量计算中各个参数间的相关性是否对储量计算结果有影响进行了研究,对蒙特卡洛方法在经济评价领域的应用也作出了介绍和实例研究,通过应用实例检验了蒙特卡洛模拟在地质储量估算和经济评价中的适用性。最后得出结论蒙特卡洛法在储量计算及经济评价领域是一种适用性极强的方法。对五个不同类型油气藏的地质储量进行了蒙特卡洛模拟,并对其变量间相关性对地质储量的影响进行了分析和验证以确定其作为石油和天然气储量估算方法的有效性。从模拟所得的分布可以看出该方法可以有效的预测所研究油气藏的储量。在经济评价实例中运用OptQuest工具,在不确定性情况下,对给定置信度下的经济指标NPV进行了优化,结果表明用OptQuest工具得到的最佳NPV值精度最高,证明其预测准确可靠,可用以评价开发新区的开发前景。运用Decision Table Tool(决策表工具)分析了在不确定性条件下,改变决策变量值对模拟模型结果的影响。决策表工具会自动运行多个模拟以检测一个或两个决策变量的不同值对NPV的影响。然后使用水晶球软件中预测图,趋势图,和叠加图分析决策表工具运行的结果。
[Abstract]:There are many uncertain risk factors in the whole process from exploration to development in oil and gas fields. The uncertainty of reservoir geological characteristics, reservoir characteristics, fluid properties and production characteristics, selection of development schemes, selection of drilling methods, and economic and political factors has always restricted people's understanding of the development of oil and gas fields. In the development planning of an oil field, it is necessary to have an overall understanding of the whole oil and gas field, and make clear that the reserve scale of the oil and gas field is an important basis for designing the development plan for the follow-up and guiding the development work, economic evaluation and investment scale of the oil and gas field. Therefore, the single storage value calculated by traditional reserves calculation methods, such as volume method, is not enough to describe the uncertainty of underground oil and gas reservoirs, but the volume method is one of the most practical methods for calculating oil and gas reserves, and it does not require high production data. The reserves can be obtained only by using the static data of oil and gas reservoirs, and it is also an important basis for estimating reserves by Monte Carlo method. On the basis of a large number of literatures, the application of Monte Carlo method in many aspects, such as project investment, energy engineering, hydro-electricity, meteorological prediction, mining project investment, resource quantity evaluation and so on, is summarized in this paper. Especially in recent years, Monte Carlo method has been applied more and more widely in petroleum field, such as distribution of remaining oil, estimation of drilling time, logging interpretation, classification of reserves and calculation of economic limit production. Monte Carlo reserves estimation based on volume method has a large number of application examples. In this paper, the application of Monte Carlo simulation in the estimation and economic evaluation of geological reserves is studied, and the crystal sphere software used to calculate reserves by Monte Carlo method is introduced in detail. The paper also studies whether the correlation among the parameters in the calculation of reserves has an effect on the result of reserve calculation, and also introduces the application of Monte Carlo method in the field of economic evaluation and makes a case study on the application of the Monte Carlo method in the field of economic evaluation. The applicability of Monte Carlo simulation in the estimation of geological reserves and economic evaluation is verified by an example. Finally, it is concluded that the Monte Carlo method is a highly applicable method in the field of reserves calculation and economic evaluation. Monte Carlo simulation is carried out on the geological reserves of five different types of oil and gas reservoirs, and the influence of the correlation among variables on the geological reserves is analyzed and verified in order to determine the validity of the method used as the estimation method of oil and natural gas reserves. From the simulated distribution, it can be seen that this method can effectively predict the reserves of the oil and gas reservoirs studied. In the case of economic evaluation, the OptQuest tool is used to optimize the economic index NPV under the given confidence level under uncertainty. The results show that the best NPV value obtained by the OptQuest tool has the highest precision, which proves that the prediction is accurate and reliable. It can be used to evaluate the development prospect of the new development area. In this paper, the influence of changing the value of decision variables on the results of simulation model is analyzed by using Decision Table Tool (decision table tool. The decision table tool automatically runs multiple simulations to detect the impact of different values of one or two decision variables on the NPV. Then, the results of decision table tools are analyzed by using prediction chart, trend chart, and superposition graph in crystal ball software.
【学位授予单位】：长江大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：TE155;TE322

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