工艺参数及设备对流动安全性的影响

发布时间：2019-04-19 10:45

【摘要】：近年来国内外学者对于含蜡原油管道流动保障技术的研究较为全面丰富。在已有研究的基础上,对原油管道流动失效概率高效算法进行了探索,采用特征正交分解(POD)空间降维技术来降低单个再启动模拟的时间;采用基于Houska触变性模型的再启动压力计算模型来描述含蜡原油触变性特征;采用拉丁超立方(LHS)抽样方法克服传统的蒙托卡洛方法的收敛性差的缺点,减少抽样次数;引入干涉原理,来求解再启动失效概率,减少小概率对计算样本的要求。通过多种技术的综合应用,使计算时间明显减少,计算模型更为准确,完善了高含蜡原油管道流动安全评价软件。停输再启动过程和运行管输过程工艺参数波动性对含蜡原油管道流动安全性的影响进行了研究,以中朝线中方段管道为例,分析了管道失效概率随停输时间、出站温度、输量、管道埋深、地温等影响因素的变化规律,进行了敏感性分析和安全裕量分析,并提出了管道进入不稳定工作区后进一步恶化至管道停流的转化概率,来表示管输运行时恶化情况。鉴于流动安全性的要求,并从设备本身的可靠性出发考虑,提出了一种立足于站场整体的直接式加热炉安全评价方法及流程,包括:生产报表数据自动筛选与提取、计算相关工况参数均值与方差、统计加热炉效率分布、随机多次抽样反算出站温度分布;结合最低出站温度来评价加热炉性能并提出改进建议。以此为根据,开发了加热炉工艺风险评价软件,并对相关算例进行风险评价,评价结果符合实际。
[Abstract]:In recent years, scholars at home and abroad have studied the flow support technology of waxy crude oil pipeline in an all-round way. On the basis of the existing research, the efficient algorithm of failure probability of crude oil pipeline flow is explored. The orthogonal decomposition (POD) space dimension reduction technique is used to reduce the time of single restart simulation. The restart pressure calculation model based on Houska thixotropy model is used to describe the thixotropic characteristics of waxy crude oil, and Latin hypercubic (LHS) sampling method is used to overcome the shortcomings of the traditional Montocarol method, and to reduce the sampling times. The interference principle is introduced to solve the failure probability of restart and reduce the requirement of small probability to calculate the sample. Through the comprehensive application of various techniques, the calculation time is obviously reduced, the calculation model is more accurate, and the safety evaluation software for the flow of high waxy crude oil pipeline is perfected. The effect of process parameter fluctuation on the flow safety of waxy crude oil pipeline during shutdown and re-start process and operation pipeline was studied. Taking the Chinese section of Sino-Korean line as an example, the failure probability of pipeline was analyzed with the shutdown time, the outbound temperature and the volume of transportation, and the failure probability of pipeline was analyzed. The sensitivity analysis and safety margin analysis of the influence factors such as buried depth and ground temperature of the pipeline are carried out, and the transformation probability of further deterioration to the pipeline stop flow after the pipeline enters the unstable working area is put forward. To indicate the deterioration of pipeline operation. In view of the requirement of flow safety and considering the reliability of the equipment, this paper presents a safety evaluation method and process of direct heating furnace based on the whole station yard, including: automatic selection and extraction of production report data; The mean and variance of the parameters are calculated, the efficiency distribution of the heating furnace is counted, and the temperature distribution of the station is calculated by random multiple sampling. Combined with the lowest outbound temperature, the performance of the reheating furnace is evaluated and suggestions for improvement are put forward. On the basis of this, the software of process risk assessment for reheating furnace is developed, and the related examples are evaluated. The evaluation results accord with the reality.
【学位授予单位】：中国民航大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：TE832

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