我国成品油价格市场化改革路径研究
发布时间：2019-05-23 20:59
【摘要】：党的十八届三中全会曾提出,要“推进油气价格改革,放开竞争性环节价格”。石油、成品油供应关系到国家经济命脉,而当今世界石油供需格局发生了重大变化,我国民众对石油消费需求的快速增长、石油对外依存度的不断提高及国内“油价倒挂”、“油荒”等现象都对我国成品油市场运行及定价机制改革提出严峻挑战,国际石油供需新格局下的成品油价格市场化改革研究已引起学术界的广泛关注。鉴于现有国内外成品油价格及定价机制研究与我国成品油市场化改革发展现状,本文将在借鉴其他典型国家成品油定价机制改革及分析目前我国成品油市场面临问题的基础上,首先采用协整检验,VEC模型,Granger因果关系检验等定量方法实证分析我国成品油价格与国际油价、消费、市场结构、产业结构等要素间的关系,并采用霍特林改进公式、多情景政策分析及柯布-道格拉斯生产函数等政策工具分别分析石油产业供需链不同税费与油价的联动关系。最后,结合油价体系、我国石油市场竞争结构、产业结构调整、税费政策、监管体系等因素设计符合国际石油供需新格局和国内资源环境约束条件的我国成品油价格市场化改革路径:首先,制定国际视阈下的油价策略目标,差别化国内成品油(汽、柴油)价格改革。其次,进一步开放国内成品油市场,优化市场结构,不断推进产业结构升级,并大力促进新能源的开发与利用。再者,制定石油产业供需链油价与税费联动的定价调控政策:开发环节,细化不同品质石油资源税率而非简单的综合减征率,制定资源分品种、分阶段的动态优化税率,合理开发资源;进口环节,探索随价格波动的奖励型进口税率;运输储备环节,确定降低通胀和经济阻碍的最优运输税率和随油价不断调整的储备率;消费环节,确定分不同行业类型的动态“从价计征”消费税税率,探讨碳税的可行性。最后逐步完善配套的石油期货储备和市场监管体系。
[Abstract]:The third Plenary session of the 18th CPC Central Committee once proposed to "promote oil and gas price reform and liberalize competitive link prices." The supply of oil and refined oil is related to the lifeline of the national economy, and great changes have taken place in the pattern of oil supply and demand in the world today. The rapid growth of Chinese people's demand for oil consumption, the continuous improvement of oil dependence on foreign countries and the "upside down" of domestic oil prices. The phenomenon of "oil shortage" has posed severe challenges to the operation of China's refined oil market and the reform of pricing mechanism. The research on the market-oriented reform of refined oil price under the new pattern of international oil supply and demand has aroused widespread concern in academic circles. In view of the existing research on the price and pricing mechanism of refined oil at home and abroad and the present situation of the market reform and development of refined oil in China, this paper will draw lessons from the reform of pricing mechanism of refined oil in other typical countries and analyze the problems faced by China's refined oil market at present. First of all, cointegration test, VEC model, Granger causality test and other quantitative methods are used to empirically analyze the relationship between China's refined oil price and international oil price, consumption, market structure, industrial structure and other factors, and Hortrin's improved formula is used to analyze the relationship between China's refined oil price and international oil price, consumption, market structure, industrial structure and so on. Multi-scenario policy analysis and Cobb-Douglas production function and other policy tools respectively analyze the linkage between different taxes and fees and oil prices in the supply chain of the oil industry. Finally, combined with the oil price system, the competitive structure of China's oil market, the adjustment of industrial structure, and the policy of taxes and fees, The regulatory system and other factors design the market-oriented reform path of China's refined oil price in accordance with the new pattern of international oil supply and demand and the constraints of domestic resources and environment: first, formulate the strategic goal of oil price from the international perspective, and distinguish the domestic refined oil (steam). Diesel (diesel) price reform. Secondly, we should further open up the domestic oil product market, optimize the market structure, constantly promote the upgrading of the industrial structure, and vigorously promote the development and utilization of new energy. In addition, the pricing regulation and control policy of oil price and tax and fee linkage in the supply and demand chain of the oil industry should be formulated: the development link, the refinement of the tax rate of different quality oil resources rather than the simple comprehensive tax reduction rate, the formulation of resource varieties, and the dynamic optimization of tax rate in stages. Reasonable development of resources; In the import link, the incentive import tax rate with price fluctuation is explored, and the transportation reserve link is used to determine the optimal transportation tax rate to reduce inflation and economic hindrance and the reserve rate adjusted continuously with oil price. In the consumption link, the dynamic "ad valorem" consumption tax rate divided into different industry types is determined, and the feasibility of carbon tax is discussed. Finally, we will gradually improve the matching oil futures reserve and market supervision system.
【学位授予单位】：中国石油大学(华东)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F426.22;F764.1
本文编号：2484224
[Abstract]:The third Plenary session of the 18th CPC Central Committee once proposed to "promote oil and gas price reform and liberalize competitive link prices." The supply of oil and refined oil is related to the lifeline of the national economy, and great changes have taken place in the pattern of oil supply and demand in the world today. The rapid growth of Chinese people's demand for oil consumption, the continuous improvement of oil dependence on foreign countries and the "upside down" of domestic oil prices. The phenomenon of "oil shortage" has posed severe challenges to the operation of China's refined oil market and the reform of pricing mechanism. The research on the market-oriented reform of refined oil price under the new pattern of international oil supply and demand has aroused widespread concern in academic circles. In view of the existing research on the price and pricing mechanism of refined oil at home and abroad and the present situation of the market reform and development of refined oil in China, this paper will draw lessons from the reform of pricing mechanism of refined oil in other typical countries and analyze the problems faced by China's refined oil market at present. First of all, cointegration test, VEC model, Granger causality test and other quantitative methods are used to empirically analyze the relationship between China's refined oil price and international oil price, consumption, market structure, industrial structure and other factors, and Hortrin's improved formula is used to analyze the relationship between China's refined oil price and international oil price, consumption, market structure, industrial structure and so on. Multi-scenario policy analysis and Cobb-Douglas production function and other policy tools respectively analyze the linkage between different taxes and fees and oil prices in the supply chain of the oil industry. Finally, combined with the oil price system, the competitive structure of China's oil market, the adjustment of industrial structure, and the policy of taxes and fees, The regulatory system and other factors design the market-oriented reform path of China's refined oil price in accordance with the new pattern of international oil supply and demand and the constraints of domestic resources and environment: first, formulate the strategic goal of oil price from the international perspective, and distinguish the domestic refined oil (steam). Diesel (diesel) price reform. Secondly, we should further open up the domestic oil product market, optimize the market structure, constantly promote the upgrading of the industrial structure, and vigorously promote the development and utilization of new energy. In addition, the pricing regulation and control policy of oil price and tax and fee linkage in the supply and demand chain of the oil industry should be formulated: the development link, the refinement of the tax rate of different quality oil resources rather than the simple comprehensive tax reduction rate, the formulation of resource varieties, and the dynamic optimization of tax rate in stages. Reasonable development of resources; In the import link, the incentive import tax rate with price fluctuation is explored, and the transportation reserve link is used to determine the optimal transportation tax rate to reduce inflation and economic hindrance and the reserve rate adjusted continuously with oil price. In the consumption link, the dynamic "ad valorem" consumption tax rate divided into different industry types is determined, and the feasibility of carbon tax is discussed. Finally, we will gradually improve the matching oil futures reserve and market supervision system.
【学位授予单位】：中国石油大学(华东)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F426.22;F764.1
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