耦合S曲线和贝叶斯网络的水利工程成本-进度仿真分析及应用

发布时间：2018-03-16 19:19

本文选题：工程仿真　切入点：S曲线　出处：《中国农村水利水电》2017年10期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：针对工程施工成本优化与进度风险分析问题,提出了耦合S曲线和贝叶斯网络的施工成本-进度仿真分析方法。根据成本-进度S曲线对施工成本进行优化与控制;利用贝叶斯风险分析方法研究小型水利工程因工期短而普遍存在的进度风险问题,通过贝叶斯网络对进度风险的敏感性分析确定关键进度风险因素,为工程施工成本与进度管理提供有力依据。该方法成功应用于某河渠防护工程中,河渠防护工程成本优化及关键进度风险因素的确定为施工成本与进度定量分析提供有效支持。
[Abstract]:In order to solve the problem of engineering construction cost optimization and schedule risk analysis, a method of coupling S curve and Bayesian network is put forward. The construction cost is optimized and controlled according to the cost schedule S curve. Bayesian risk analysis method is used to study the schedule risk of small water conservancy projects because of the short construction period, and the key schedule risk factors are determined by the sensitivity analysis of Bayesian network to schedule risk. This method has been successfully applied to a river canal protection project. The optimization of channel protection project cost and the determination of key schedule risk factors provide effective support for quantitative analysis of construction cost and schedule.
【作者单位】：天津大学水利工程仿真与安全国家重点实验室;廊坊市水务局;
【分类号】：TV51

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