引入互联网搜索量的市场需求预测模型研究

发布时间：2018-07-15 20:26

【摘要】：近年来,随着互联网产业不断发展,互联网中的信息也越来越多,搜索引擎逐渐发展为网民使用的重要应用。2007年,谷歌公司推出了谷歌趋势,统计广大使用谷歌搜索的用户的搜索关键字特征。许多学者开始研究产品或服务的互联网搜索量特征与其同实际的市场需求之间的关系,研究发现互联网搜索量与实际的市场需求之间具有显著的相关关系,并且在预测模型中引入互联网搜索量有助于提高模型的预测精度。然而,目前的研究大都在国外,采用谷歌趋势提供的谷歌指数作为研究对象的互联网搜索量代表,研究的领域集中在药品、失业率、旅游等行业。对中国国内市场的互联网搜索量特征与其同产品实际的市场需求之间的关系研究较少。基于以上理由,本文着力于中国国内互联网搜索量市场特征的研究,从更多的领域验证互联网搜索量与实际市场需求之间的关系。本文的主要研究成果如下： 1.构建引入互联网搜索量的市场需求预测模型,本文基于ARIMA模型和普通的时间序列,构建了引入互联网搜索量的市场需求预测模型。 2.研究中国国内市场的产品或服务的互联网搜索量特征以及其与实际的市场需求之间的关系。本文以飞信到达用户数和国内电影票房为基础,研究产品或服务在国内的互联网搜索量特征,和其同其市场需求之间的关系。 3.验证互联网搜索量在市场需求预测中的作用。通过建立对比模型,比较不含互联网搜索量的预测模型与包含互联网搜索量的预测模型的预测精度,揭示了互联网搜索量在预测中的作用。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the continuous development of the Internet industry, more and more information in the Internet, search engines have gradually become an important application for Internet users. In 2007, Google launched the Google trend, Statistics of the vast number of Google search users search keyword features. Many scholars have begun to study the relationship between the Internet search volume characteristics of products or services and the actual market demand, and found that there is a significant correlation between the Internet search volume and the actual market demand. And the introduction of Internet search volume in the prediction model will help to improve the prediction accuracy of the model. However, most of the current research is in foreign countries, using the Google Index provided by Google Trends as the representative of Internet search volume, focusing on the pharmaceutical, unemployment, tourism and other industries. There is little research on the relationship between the characteristics of Internet search volume and the actual market demand of Chinese domestic market. Based on the above reasons, this paper focuses on the study of the market characteristics of domestic Internet search volume in China, and verifies the relationship between the Internet search volume and the actual market demand from more fields. The main research results of this paper are as follows: 1. Based on Arima model and ordinary time series, this paper constructs a market demand forecasting model with Internet search volume. 2. This paper studies the characteristics of Internet search volume of products or services in China's domestic market and its relationship with actual market demand. Based on the number of users reached by Fetion and the domestic box office, this paper studies the characteristics of Internet search volume of products or services in China, and the relationship between them and their market demand. 3. Verify the role of Internet search volume in market demand forecasting. By establishing a comparative model, the prediction accuracy between the prediction model without Internet search quantity and the prediction model with Internet search quantity is compared, and the function of Internet search quantity in prediction is revealed.
【学位授予单位】：北京邮电大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：TP391.3

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