基于模糊测度理论的电力通信网风险评估

发布时间：2018-06-13 15:30

本文选题：模糊测度 + 电力通信网　；参考：《华北电力大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着传感器技术、云计算及大数据技术不断成熟,电力系统信息化、智能化进程不断推进,电力物理空间和电力信息空间的耦合程度不断加深,即信息物理融合(Cyber Physical System,CPS)的特征越来越明显,形成了典型的电力信息物理融合系统(Cyber Physical Power System,CPPS)。电力系统中物理空间对信息空间的高度依赖性也使信息系统的可靠性决定着电力系统的安全性。电力信息通信网络中设备类型多样、结构复杂、规模庞大,并且设备状态的监测精度以及信息采集的频率、范围不断提高,加上电力系统的CPS特征带来的影响,使得电力信息通信网络的风险态势评估成为一个多层次、多指标,且指标之间具有深度相关性、融合性的问题。针对这一特征给电力信息通信网络风险评估带来的挑战性问题,构建了一种基于模糊测度理论的综合的风险态势评估模型。本文首先构建电力信息通信网络风险态势评估的指标体系,然后给出了基于模糊测度和模糊积分的风险态势综合评估模型。其中,采用改进后的层次分析法和熵权法的权重计算方法来确定单指标的模糊密度,这种主、客观相结合的方法在一定程度上减少了主观经验带来的误差;结合数据的特征,对岭型分布进行参数修正,构建隶属函数来计算评价矩阵;针对指标间的相关性、耦合性的特点,选取模糊测度和模糊积分算法,模糊测度用较弱的单调性代替可加性,实现了非可加性,能更加准确的刻画评估行为,然后用模糊积分算子不断融合指标集合的估计值来得到综合的风险态势估计值。构建模型后,对某电力通信网进行算例分析、验证,结果表明了该方法的有效性。设计并实现基于此评估模型的电力通信网风险态势评估原型系统,实现信息的增、删、查、改等编辑操作,实现最终风险值的计算,以及模糊密度、模糊测度等中间结果的展示,并实现风险态势的可视化展示。
[Abstract]:With the development of sensor technology, cloud computing and big data technology, power system informatization, intelligent process, the coupling degree of electric power physical space and electric power information space is deepening. That is, the characteristics of Cyber physical system CPS) are becoming more and more obvious, forming a typical electric power physical power system named Cyber physical Power system. The high dependence of physical space on information space in power system also makes the reliability of information system determine the security of power system. In the electric power information communication network, the equipment type is various, the structure is complex, the scale is huge, and the monitoring precision of the equipment state and the frequency and the range of the information collection are improved constantly, in addition to the influence of the CPS characteristic of the power system, It makes the risk situation assessment of power information and communication network become a multi-level, multi-index, and the index has deep correlation, fusion problem. A comprehensive risk situation assessment model based on fuzzy measure theory is proposed to solve the challenging problem of power information and communication network risk assessment. In this paper, the index system of power information and communication network risk situation assessment is constructed, and then a comprehensive risk situation assessment model based on fuzzy measure and fuzzy integral is presented. The improved analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and the weight calculation method of entropy weight method are used to determine the fuzzy density of a single index. This subjective and objective combination method reduces the error brought by subjective experience to a certain extent, and combines the characteristics of data. The parameter of ridge distribution is modified and the membership function is constructed to calculate the evaluation matrix. According to the characteristics of correlation and coupling among indexes, fuzzy measure and fuzzy integral algorithm are selected. The fuzzy measure replaces additivity with weak monotonicity. The non-additivity is realized and the evaluation behavior can be described more accurately. Then the fuzzy integral operator is used to continuously fuse the estimate value of the index set to obtain the comprehensive risk situation estimate. After constructing the model, an example of a power communication network is given, and the results show that the method is effective. The prototype system of power communication network risk situation assessment based on this evaluation model is designed and implemented, which can add, delete, check and change information, realize the calculation of final risk value and fuzzy density. The intermediate results such as fuzzy measure are displayed and the visualization of risk situation is realized.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TN915.853;TM73

【参考文献】