运输航空公司用能规划目标预测方法研究

发布时间：2018-03-09 19:26

本文选题：用能规划　切入点：预测方法　出处：《中国民航大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近年来,面对我国民航业快速发展而至的航油消耗增速显著与国际减碳的重压,准确预判行业能源消耗进而有目的控制能源使用、有效提高能效具有重要科学意义和实用价值。另外,利用预测能耗数据可以推算出运输航空公司各类能耗以及碳排放量是否能够满足国家下达的各项指标要求,可为运输航空公司节能减排决策提供理论支持。本文结合民航局“十三五”节能减排规划课题和某运输航空公司“十三五”节能减排规划课题,对运输航空公司用能规划目标预测方法展开了研究,对航油消耗指标进行多维度的预测,主要工作包括:1、对运输航空公司用能现状进行了详细调研,分析了用能结构,提出了以用能总量指标作为规划用能指标;2、针对历史航油消耗数据非线性,非平稳特征的特点,选取改进能源弹性系数-情景假设法、支持向量回归预测法、对运输航空公司航油消耗量进行了直接预测;3、针对预测过程中的不确定性因素问题,提出了将航油消耗分解为燃油效率和运输周转量两个因素,采用情景假设法、灰色预测法和回归分析预测法对这两个因素进行单独预测,根据燃油效率、运输周转量和航油消耗这三者之间的关系,间接得到运输航空公司航油消耗目标预测值;4、综合直接预测和间接预测的结果,给出合理的运输航空公司用能规划目标值。同时,不同的预测结果相互可以交叉检验,验证预测结果的合理性。
[Abstract]:In recent years, in the face of the rapid development of civil aviation industry in China and the significant increase of aviation oil consumption and the heavy pressure of international carbon reduction, we accurately predict the energy consumption of the industry and then control energy use purposefully. It is of great scientific significance and practical value to effectively improve energy efficiency. In addition, using the predicted energy consumption data, we can calculate whether the various energy consumption and carbon emissions of transport companies can meet the national requirements. It can provide theoretical support for energy saving and emission reduction decision of transport airline. This paper combines the energy saving and emission reduction planning project of the 13th Five-Year Plan of Civil Aviation Administration and the energy saving and emission reduction planning project of a transportation company. In this paper, the forecasting method of energy use planning target of transport airline is studied, and the multi-dimensional prediction of aviation fuel consumption index is carried out. The main work includes: 1. The current situation of energy use of transport airline is investigated in detail, and the structure of energy use is analyzed. Taking the total energy use index as the planning energy use index, aiming at the nonlinear and non-stationary characteristics of the historical aviation oil consumption data, the improved energy elasticity coefficient scenario hypothesis method and the support vector regression forecasting method are selected. In this paper, the aviation oil consumption of transportation companies is predicted directly. Aiming at the uncertain factors in the forecasting process, the aviation oil consumption is decomposed into two factors: fuel efficiency and transportation turnover, and the scenario hypothesis method is adopted. The grey forecasting method and the regression analysis forecasting method predict these two factors separately, according to the relationship among fuel efficiency, transportation turnover and aviation oil consumption. The forecast value of aviation fuel consumption target of transport airline is obtained indirectly. Combining the direct and indirect prediction results, the reasonable target value of energy use planning for transport airline is given. At the same time, different forecast results can be cross-checked with each other. Verify the rationality of the prediction results.
【学位授予单位】：中国民航大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：V323;TP18

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