电子商务环境下基于预测控制的闭环供应链的仿真研究

发布时间：2018-05-10 18:41

本文选题：电子商务 + 闭环供应链　；参考：《沈阳理工大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：电子商务是科技信息发展的产物,它是以信息网络技术为手段,以商品交换为中心的商务活动,是传统商业活动各环节的电子化、网络化、信息化。牛鞭效应是供应链中需求信息被放大的现象,它使得供应链系统的经济效益受损,严重时会导致整个供应链的崩溃。电子商务的出现使得闭环供应链网络变得更加复杂,牛鞭效应对其产生的影响也因此变得更加显著。预测控制算法已经在各个领域得到了广泛的应用,面对供应链管理面临的新的挑战,专家学者将预测控制算法引入到供应链系统的管理中,并得到满意的控制效果。动态矩阵控制算法是预测控制算法中典型算法之一,该算法具有实现简单、控制灵活和应用范围广等优点。针对电子商务环境下供应链管理中存在的问题,本文对动态矩阵控制算法在闭环供应链管理中的应用进行研究。牛鞭效应是衡量供应链系统最重要的性能指标,本文针对供应链中存在的牛鞭效应进行深入研究。牛鞭效应造成库存成本增加、生产过量、客户满意度降低,它产生的主要原因有:需求预测不准、价格波动和订单增加。为了直观分析牛鞭效应,本文采用统计分析的方法对其实现量化并通过加强信息共享、减小波动性、建立战略伙伴关系来削弱和抑制牛鞭效应带来的负面影响和危害。动态矩阵控制算法(DMC)包括预测模型、滚动优化和反馈校正三部分,文中描述了算法的实现步骤,针对系统参数的取值给出了选取原则和整定步骤,并使用MATLAB完成了算法编程实现,然后分别在单输入单输出对象和多输入多输出对象的情况下进行仿真实验,实验结果表明系统参数的选取和整定步骤的有效性。将动态矩阵控制算法应用到电子商务环境下闭环供应链管理中的实质是通过算法的滚动优化和反馈校正,不断调整供应链中节点企业的订货量和生产量,最终使得供应链系统中的牛鞭效应得到削减和抑制。本文建立了双渠道电子商务闭环供应链网络的动态模型,利用卡尔曼滤波器对系统的状态、不可测扰动和噪声进行估计,并推导出预测模型,确定系统目标函数,并提出了二次优化的约束优化算法,将供应链动态网路管理问题转换成标准二次优化问题进行求解。通过仿真实验结果表明,将DMC算法应用在电子商务环境下闭环供应链的管理中,能为供应链系统提供优化的生产库存策,增强了系统的稳定性,提高了链中企业的竞争力,最终实现了整体利益的最大化。
[Abstract]:E-commerce is the product of the development of scientific and technological information. It is a commercial activity with information network technology as the means and commodity exchange as the center. It is the electronic, networked and information of each link of the traditional commercial activities. Bullwhip effect is the phenomenon that the demand information is enlarged in the supply chain, which makes the economic benefit of the supply chain system damaged, and will lead to the collapse of the whole supply chain seriously. The emergence of electronic commerce makes the closed-loop supply chain network more complex, and the bullwhip effect becomes more significant. Predictive control algorithm has been widely used in various fields. In the face of new challenges faced by supply chain management, experts and scholars introduce predictive control algorithm into supply chain management, and obtain satisfactory control effect. Dynamic matrix control algorithm is one of the typical predictive control algorithms, which has the advantages of simple implementation, flexible control and wide application. In this paper, the application of dynamic matrix control algorithm in closed-loop supply chain management is studied. Bullwhip effect is the most important performance index to measure the supply chain system. Bullwhip effect leads to the increase of inventory cost, excessive production and decrease of customer satisfaction. The main reasons are: inaccurate demand forecast, fluctuating price and increasing order. In order to analyze the bullwhip effect intuitively, this paper uses the statistical analysis method to quantify the bullwhip effect and to weaken and restrain the negative influence and harm brought by the bullwhip effect by strengthening the information sharing, reducing the volatility and establishing the strategic partnership. The dynamic matrix control algorithm (DMC) consists of three parts: prediction model, rolling optimization and feedback correction. The implementation steps of the algorithm are described, and the selection principles and tuning steps are given for the selection of system parameters. The algorithm is programmed with MATLAB, and the simulation experiments are carried out in the case of single input, single output object and multiple input and multiple output object, respectively. The experimental results show that the system parameter selection and tuning steps are effective. The essence of applying the dynamic matrix control algorithm to the closed loop supply chain management in the electronic commerce environment is to adjust the order quantity and production capacity of the node enterprises in the supply chain through rolling optimization and feedback correction of the algorithm. Finally, the bullwhip effect in the supply chain system is reduced and restrained. In this paper, the dynamic model of the closed loop supply chain network of dual channel electronic commerce is established. The state, unmeasurable disturbance and noise of the system are estimated by Kalman filter, and the prediction model is derived, and the objective function of the system is determined. A constrained optimization algorithm for quadratic optimization is proposed to transform the dynamic network management problem of supply chain into a standard quadratic optimization problem. The simulation results show that the application of DMC algorithm in the management of closed loop supply chain under electronic commerce environment can provide the supply chain system with optimized production inventory policy, enhance the stability of the system, and improve the competitiveness of enterprises in the chain. Finally realized the overall benefit maximization.
【学位授予单位】：沈阳理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F274;F724.6;TP13

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